By Jamie Alter for Cricket Next

Pakistan’s 3-0 sweep of England, the No. 1 Test team, in the UAE was the most glittering result for a team that has managed to hold its own on the field despite facing a mountain of problems off it. Here’s a look at the key players in Pakistan’s resurgence as a Test team.

Misbah-ul-Haq

Ten months ago, Misbah-ul-Haq was a condemned man whose time as an international cricketer seemed over after he was made the scapegoat for Pakistan’s defeat to India in the World Cup semi-final in Mohali. Today, he is being heralded as an astute leader of a team bristling with pride and rightful claims to being a top-level Test side. Handed the captaincy ahead of Pakistan’s series against South Africa in the UAE in 2010, the soft-spoken, almost laidback Misbah has been hugely influential in steering Pakistan from a host of troubles and to series wins over New Zealand, Zimbabwe, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and England – not to forget a draw with South Africa – and just the anomaly of a 1-1 scoreline against West Indies.

He hasn’t always been a proactive captain – his reluctance to push for a win against Sri Lanka in Sharjah last November attracted criticism – but his numbers as leader have been highly impressive: 15 matches, 1165 runs, average 64.72, with one century and 12 fifties. That one century – an unbeaten 102 in the second innings at Basseterre – played a big role in Pakistan leveling the two-Test series in the West Indies in May 2011. Innings of 99 and 70 not out earned him the Man-of-the-Match award in Wellington in January 2011, and those were clutch innings in a draw that gave Pakistan their first series victory outside the subcontinent since a triumph in New Zealand in 2003-04, and their first anywhere since 2006-07. In the first innings of the second Test against England in Abu Dhabi, Misbah top-scored with 84 on day in which the opposition dominated, and what a key innings it proved.

Saeed Ajmal

If there is one player who personifies Pakistan’s new-found aggression and fluency, it is the leader of their immensely proficient spin attack. Ajmal, 34, has been a constant threat to opposing teams with his accurate, nagging and attacking offspin, with his doosra causing batsmen much strife. His role as a strike bowler – he has bowled 696 overs in those 12 Tests, the most for any Pakistan bowler – has taken pressure off Umar Gul and meant he has been relied on to consistently take wickets. His success is staggering.

In 12 Tests under Misbah, Ajmal has reaped 77 wickets an average of 22.63 and strike-rate of 54.20 – significantly lower than career figures of 26.70 and 61.20. Along the way he picked up Man-of-the-Match awards for eight wickets in a nine-wicket win over Sri Lanka and in Dubai and 10 – including a career-best 7 for 55 – in a 10-wicket win over England at the same venue. He was the leading Test wicket-taker in 2011, and so far this year he has grabbed 24 wickets in three Tests against England.

In this recent series, the England batsmen were largely baffled by Ajmal’s variety. In the second Test, he became the fastest Pakistan bowler to 100 Tests, and to make his achievement more remarkable, he has not played a single of his 20 Tests at home.

Abdur Rehman

If Ajmal has been an expected success during Pakistan’s run under Misbah, then the 31-year-old Abdur Rehman has been a surprise package. In 13 Tests, this canny left-arm spinner – enjoying unexpected success in his late-blooming career – has been a constant threat with 64 wickets at an average of 26.57. With an almost immaculate line and length he has attained turn and dip while convincing batsmen to play back when they should have been forward. Nothing summed this up better than the series against England, when he made several reputed batsmen appear hapless against spin, none more so than Eoin Morgan.

However, it was Rehman’s Man-of-the-Match performance against New Zealand at Hamilton in January 2011 that really made him a certainty in the playing XI. His three wickets in each innings and a crucial innings of 28 helped propel Pakistan to victory in the first Test. This year, a career-best 6 for 25 routed England for 72 as Pakistan grabbed the series in Abu Dhabi, and in the final Test his 5 for 40 was decisive in Pakistan reducing England’s lead to 42. His 19 wickets in the series played a huge role in a 3-0 scoreline, and highlighted what a key ingredient Rehman has been for Pakistan.

Like Ajmal, he has bowled a lot of overs – 683.4 – while rarely allowing the batsmen to dominate. Rehman’s batting has been handy too, with an average of 13.s8 and a half-century offering some stability to the lower order.

Umar Gul

The only fast bowler to play consistently under Misbah, Umar Gul has carried himself with discipline all throughout. Ajmal and Rehman have hogged the wickets, but Gul’s 49 victims at 29.79 have been every bit as crucial in the team’s success.
The reliance on spin has eased Gul’s workload – he has bowled 452.5 overs in 13 matches – and this has undoubtedly led to the tall fast bowler not breaking down from injury, as he was prone to do so earlier in his career. His eight-wicket haul at Wellington was a stand-out effort in overseas conditions, and even on tracks in the UAE he has plugged away relentlessly, as 29 wickets from eight matches show.

In the first Test in Abu Dhabi, Gul responded to a flat surface with a hostile spell on the third day – during which he surpassed 150 Test wickets – as his new-ball incursions bagged him four wickets before Ajmal and Rehman wrapped up the rest. In the third Test in Abu Dhabi, Gul’s four wickets on the final day set the course of the match categorically towards Pakistan. The spinners have been the talking point of Pakistan’s success, but Gul’s role cannot he underestimated.

Mohammad Hafeez

At last looking like he belongs at Test-match level, Mohammad Hafeez has flourished in his latest avatar as opener and key ingredient in Pakistan’s spin-heavy bowling attack.

With the bat, he has offered solidity to a top order that has for too long been shaky, scoring 967 runs in 15 Tests at an average of 38.68, including two centuries and four fifties. With Taufeeq Umar – another cricketer enjoying a new lease on his international career – Hafeez has stitched together three century stands and four of 50 or more. For a side that used to regularly chop and change openers during the last decade, Hafeez’s pairing with Taufeeq over 15 Tests has been nothing short of solid.

Relied on heavily with the ball – he has bowled 250 overs – Hafeez has repaid the faith with 51 wickets at 26.36. His brisk offspin has helped Ajmal and Rehman take much-needed breaks in the field, and when tossed the new ball in Guyana he responded with wickets. The highlight of Hafeez’s run over these 15 Tests was a fine all-round performance against Zimbabwe in Bulawayo, where Hafeez followed a quick-fire 119 with four wickets and a brisk 38 in a successful chase.

Taufeeq Umar

Given an extended run as opener after a four-year hiatus, the 30-year-old Taufeeq has scored 1055 runs in 15 Tests under Misbah while averaging 39.07. His batting hasn’t always been attractive, as a strike-rate of 43.18 indicates, but the fact that he has been able to deliver platforms has been immense. Two fifties in New Zealand helped blunt the threat of the home team’s pace bowlers in seam-friendly conditions, and his 135 in the second innings against West Indies at Basseterre helped Pakistan level the series.

A career-best 236 followed against Sri Lanka in Abu Dhabi, as Pakistan drew the first Test. It was a marathon effort that helped grind Sri Lanka patiently through the second day, and Taufeeq was just pipped by Kumar Sangakkara for the Man-of-the-Match award. A seventh Test hundred would come against Bangladesh soon after.

Taufeeq’s form trailed off after a fifty in the first innings of the series against England, but his success in Pakistan’s resurgence merits further persistence.

Younis Khan

The former Pakistan captain has come back excellently from a ban imposed by the PCB after allegations that he had been partially responsible for infighting within the team. His 1138 runs at 66.94, including four centuries and four fifties, have been invaluable to Pakistan.
His presence in the middle order has steadied the team numerous times, not least when he scored centuries against South Africa and Sri Lanka to go with twin fifties against New Zealand at Wellington. But his most responsible innings came in the second innings of the third Test against England, as an out of form Younis took the game away from the opposition with a superbly crafted century. Yet again, he had summoned the resolve to produce a century when his detractors were gunning for him.

Azhar Ali

Of the younger players that have flourished under Misbah, 26-year-old Azhar Ali has been the most successful. His 1220 runs from 15 matches at 50.83 include two centuries and 11 fifties, and he has been a consistent performer at No. 3. Three consecutive half-centuries against South Africa got him going after an indifferent start to his career, and from there he ploughed on with fifties against each of the teams he played. His two centuries – 100 against Sri Lanka and 157 against England – were proof that Azhar has a long career ahead of him.

Filed under: cricket, England, Pakistan, Pakistan Cricket Tagged: Abdul Rehman, Alastair Cook, Azhar Ali, cricket, Dubai Stadium, England, England Cricket, India, Kevin Pietersen, Misbah-ul-Haq, Mohammad Hafeez, Pakistan, Pakistan Cricket, Saeed Ajmal, South Africa, South African Cricket, Sri Lanka, Taufeeq Umar, Test Cricket, Umar Gul, Whitewash, Younis Khan

Naoyuki Shinohara, IMF deputy managing director (Asahi Shimbun)

The International Monetary Fund said Japan should triple its consumption tax in order to cut the country’s massive public debt.

At 5 percent, Japan’s consumption tax rate is one of the lowest in the world.

Anoop Singh, IMF chief for Asia, said “It has been our sense… that raising the consumption tax gradually, not immediately, beyond 2015 to say 15 percent, could be more in line with the tax rate in other countries.”

According to a 2010 CIA estimate, Japan’s public debt is 197.5 percent of the GDP–second only to fiscally irresponsible Zimbabwe. According to an IMF estimate, Japan’s public debt is 220 percent of GDP–by far the highest in the world.

Singh said: “In some way (increasing) the consumption tax is the most appealing measure to take. It is more growth-friendly and less distortive than other options.

“That, along with other reforms in social security and other spending, as a package, would then bring the debt ratio down.”

Since the collapse of the bubble economy in 1990, Tokyo has barely kept the economy afloat through massive pork-barrel spending–namely white elephant public works projects consisting of pouring concrete all over the country.

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, a fiscal conservative, has already proposed doubling the tax to 10 percent, but has predictably encountered formidable public and political opposition.

Naoyuki Shinohara, IMF deputy managing director, praised Noda’s decision to raise the consumption tax, but said 10 percent won’t be enough.

“While the IMF welcomes the proposal, there will come a need for an even further increase in the future,” Shinohara said in an interview with the Asahi Shimbun.

One thing should be clear: paving over the entire country in the name of creating jobs is no longer a viable economic strategy.

Here are a few stories that have caught my eye of late, with brief commentary as apt:

In an interesting (but probably passing) change of direction, China is putting pressure on Sudan “to seek urgently the release of 29 Chinese workers held by rebels in the border state of South Kordofan.” China traditionally sees national sovereignty as sacrosanct. But now it is their ox being gored and suddenly a fixed position on questions of national sovereignty seems foolish. Hopefully they keep this incident in mind the next time one of their client states commits brutality against its own people.

The African Union was supposed to decide on its leadership this week. Instead gridlock has set in. South Africa had hoped that its Home Affairs Minister, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, would emerge victorious, but she has been unable to garner enough votes. As this story has developed I have been skeptical of whether or not Dlamini-Zuma could muster enough supports. Not because she is not qualified. But rather because South Africa occupies an interesting position on the continent. By virtually every measure it is the most powerful country on the continent, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. But that means that many Africans are wary of South Africa and want to push back against its pretensions to continental leadership. Or at least its pretensions to official positions of leadership. Culturally, economically, politically, and militarily the country is the de facto regional superpower.

Meanwhile Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe has denounced the AU for recognizing Libya’s National Transitional Council at a recent summit. At the Harare airport, Mugabe levied accusations toward his African colleagues for being: “‘fronts’ for Western powers whose ‘criminal’ NATO bombardment of Libya helped lead to the killing of Col. Moammar Gadhafi, a former Mugabe ally.” Of course he did.

Finally, if you’re going to be anywhere near the Research Triangle in North Carolina this weekend, I’d encourage you to swing by the South East Regional Seminar in African Studies (SERSAS) and the South East Africanist Network (SEAN) Conference. The main program will take place on Saturday at the University of North Carolina’s Fedex Global Education Center. The conference theme is “Border Crossings, Migrations, and Interventions,” but panels will deviate from those themes. I’m on the panel and would love to meet any readers who might be in the area.

By The Sydney Morning Hearld

Left-arm spinner Abdul Rehman took a career best 6-25 to help Pakistan humble England by 72 runs in the second Test in Abu Dhabi, to giving Pakistan unassailable 2-0 lead in the three-match series.
The 31-year-old twice took two wickets in successive overs to dent England’s chase after Andrew Strauss’s side was set a 145-run target on a weary fourth-day Abu Dhabi Stadium pitch.

England was all out for 72 – its lowest total against Pakistan in all Tests.
Rehman’s effort overshadowed Monty Panesar’s 6-62, in his first Test for England in 30 months, which finished Pakistan’s second innings at 214 in the morning.

This is England’s first series defeat after being unbeaten in its previous nine since a loss to the West Indies in early 2009 – a sequence which saw it rise to world No.1 in the Test rankings in August.
Pakistan won the first Test in Dubai by 10 wickets. The third Test will also be played in Dubai, from Friday.

Skipper Misbah-ul Haq said Pakistan wanted to make a match out of it after setting a tricky target.
“We knew that it would be difficult so we wanted to make a match out of it,” said Misbah, who has now won eight Tests with one defeat since taking over the captaincy in October 2010.

“Our bowlers, led by Rehman, responded well and this is a great win.” Strauss showed his disappointment at England’s woeful effort.
“It’s pretty disappointing,” said Strauss, whose side last lost two Tests in a row against South Africa in July 2008. “We must acknowledge how well Pakistan bowled and they thoroughly deserved the series win.”

Rehman was ably assisted by off-spinners Saeed Ajmal (3-22) and Mohammad Hafeez (1-11) in a match in which spinners dominated from the first day.
England lost its top four batsmen in the space of just 37 balls after an extra cautious start on a difficult pitch. Strauss top scored with 32 before he became one of Rehman’s victims during his maiden five-wicket haul.

In the penultimate over before tea, Rehman trapped Kevin Pietersen (one) and two balls later bowled Eoin Morgan (duck) to raise hopes of an unlikely win for Pakistan.

Sensing it could only upset its rival through early wickets, Pakistan opened the bowling with Hafeez, who responded well by catching Alastair Cook (seven) off his own bowling after England had edged cautiously to 21 by the 15th over.
Ian Bell, promoted to No.3 after Jonathan Trott was unwell, was all at sea against master spinner Ajmal and his tentative push went through his legs to hit the stumps. He made only three.

Pietersen, who has been woefully out of form with just 16 runs in the series, managed one before Rehman trapped him and in the same over had the equally out-of-form Morgan bowled to dent England’s hopes of a victory. Rehman then accounted for Trott (one) and Stuart Broad (duck) in the same over to leave England 7-68.

Ajmal dismissed Graeme Swann (duck) and Matt Prior (18) to reach 100 Test wickets in his 19th match, before James Anderson was caught off Rehman to give Pakistan a sensational win.

Earlier, Pakistan lost its last six wickets for 89 runs after resuming at 4-125, with all hopes pinned on Azhar Ali and Asad Shafiq. Panesar took three of those wickets to finish with his eighth five-wicket haul in Tests. Azhar Ali (68) and Asad Shafiq (43) added 88 for the fifth wicket before Panesar struck.

Filed under: cricket, England, Pakistan, Pakistan Cricket Tagged: Abu Dhabi, Bangladesh, cricket, Dubai, England, England Cricket, Misbah-ul-Haq, Pakistan Cricket, Saeed Ajmal, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe

Before beginning this let’s first watch a few clips from The Shawshank Redemption :

Yes it is hope that keeps you going when the chips are down, when the going gets tough and when things can’t get any worse. Hope that things would turn out the way you want them to. Hope that nothing will go wrong this time. Hope that sanity would return to the proceedings one day.

Sixteen months ago when Pakistan Cricket team left England, they were a tumultuous pack of poorly advised individuals. Still recovering from the cricketing exile and a dud tour of Australia amalgamated with vexatious media talks of deliberate under-performance and team disintegration, they lost their test captain, their bowling leader and their most outstanding pace prodigy to allegations of corruption and match-fixing. A couple of Ijaz Butt media rants (and apologies) and some ‘Zulqarnanin Haider moments’ later Pakistan Cricket found itself pushed further into the self-created hole of cricketing isolation and abasement. And such was the asperity of this hooligan-like show of Pakistan Cricket that by the time ICC met in October 2010, there were loud shouts from left right and centre that giving this once great cricket team ‘a break’ from International sport is the only way out of this ever-growing rowdiness.

And then again when all seemed lost, HOPE intervened. The same hope that won us the world cup in 1992. The same hope that helped us win test matches from disastrous scorelines of 26/6 at Kolkatta in 1999 and 39/6 at Karachi in 2006. The same hope that made match winners out of Javed Miandad at Sharjah in 1986 and Sarfraz Nawaz at Melbourne in 1979. The same hope that made us the t20 world champions in 2009. Hope that keeps you believing that everything would be like it used to be. Hope that one day Pakistan cricket team would rise from the cricketing ashes and once again show the world what they’re capable of. Hope that they would be a force again in cricket.

And guess what! this time hope didn’t let us down. The believers won and the pessimists lost. Pakistan cricket has come a long long way since then. In a space of one year we have unearthed world’s best off spinner, world’s best limited overs leg spinner, world’s best off-spinning all rounder, the most productive test opening pair, world’s best death bowler who keeps getting better, arguably the most effective left-arm spinner in cricket right now and last but not the least – the team spirit and unity that the Pakistani dressing room of the 90s could only dream of. That’s what makes the Pakistan Cricket team of today as successful as it is.

Misbah – watchful as always!!

And away from the lime light there’s one man who’s calmly sitting back and watching the proceedings unfold. One man who’s responsible for this refreshing unpredictable predictability of Pakistan Cricket. Misbah often gets criticized by the conventional Pakistan cricket fans (including me) for taking the ‘Pakistani flair and fearlessness’ out of Pakistani cricket. His methodical approach may be too defensive at times and too frustrating for the fans but he doesn’t get enough credit for what he brings to the team: the calmness and tranquillity that was unheard of since the times of a certain Inzamam-ul-Haq. And yes while his decision of not going for achievable fourth innings targets in Wellington and Abu Dhabi or his test strike-rate of 40 runs per 100 deliveries are questionable, you can take nothing away from him for leading Pakistan cricket out of the traumatic state and enabling them to rise above the shambles as a mentally stronger and spiritually united team. Not loosing a series since taking over and the best win/loss ration in the history of Pakistan cricket (even better than Imran Khan) don’t do Misbah any harm either. Pakistan Cricket needed a sane couple of years after the ignominious course of events of the last English summer and in Misbah’s regime we have got just that.

And in the end let’s again live through this mercurial fairy tale of Pakistan Cricket.

December 2009 - February 2010 :

Pakistan hit the rock bottom after getting thrashed 9-0 Down Under.

It all started in Australia. After winning the t20 world cup in early 2009, Pakistan had two moderately successful tours of Sri Lanka and New Zealand. With leadership crisis fast emerging and deteriorating team spirit under the media radar, an Australian tour was the last thing Pakistan needed. The outcome was even worse than feared. Pakistan suffered white washes in test, ODI and t20 series and were thrashed 9-0. In the aftermath of this cricket disaster, several key members of the squad were accused of causing infighting and were handed over healthy bans.

August 29 2010 :

In the middle of a potential series deciding Lord’s test, three Pakistani cricketers were accused of spot fixing and were later banned from all sorts of cricket.

The tainted trio !

Marred by spot-fixing allegations off-the-field and an array of defeats on the field, Pakistan sneaked out two consecutive wins at The Oval and Lord’s to square the series 2-2.

Umar Gul’s devastating spell of 6-42 still lives in the memory !

October 31 2010 :
For me that’s where it all started!! An under-confident Pakistan team takes on the second ranked South Africans and after conceding a t20 whitewash and tasting defeat in the first ODI, they’re struggling at 217/6 chasing 286 with only Abdur Razzaq and a couple of tailenders left. Watch this to know what happened afterwards.

Such a confidence booster was this annihilation of arguably the world’s best ODI side that a broken and inexperienced Pakistan team went on to draw the following test series 0-0 after narrowly conceding the ODI series 3-2. This series was the beginning of the redemption!

December 2010 – January 2011 :

New Zealand has always been a happy destination for Pakistan Cricket. Having not lost a test series there for the last decade and a half, a tour to New Zealand seemed to be the perfect recipe for Pakistan to get back to winning ways and they grabbed the opportunity with both hands by convincingly winning the test and ODI series.

after the series victory!

The demons of the disastrous Australian tour put to rest !

April – August 2011 :
The winning mentality was further strengthened after successful tours of West Indies, Ireland and Zimbabwe. Pakistan by now had not lost a test series for almost a year.

November 2011 :
Then came the biggest test for Misbah since he had taken over : a strong Sri Lankan side in familiar conditions. Pakistan however were upto the task as they registered series victories in tests, ODIs and t20. The Sri Lankan team could manage victory in only one out of 10 tour fixtures. This performance was a stunning reply to all those labelling Pakistan as minnow bullys.

A jubilant Pakistan team with the trophy

December 2011 :
A brittle Bangladeshi side was thrashed by Pakistan 2-0 in tests, 3-0 in ODIs and 1-0 in t20.

Another trophy for the Men in Green !

January 2012 :
And as I write Pakistan have already taken a 1-0 lead in the 3-match test series against world number one ranked England thanks to Saeed Ajmal’s devastating 10 wicket haul. England were bundled out for under 200 in both innings and were beaten within 3 days by a hefty margin of 10 wickets. Irrespective of the series result, this performance has elevated Pakistan’s status as one of the best test teams in the world right now. A series win would still be fantastic though!!

Umar Gul broke the back of English batting by dismissing top 4 English batsmen in their second innings. This, after Ajmal’s breath-taking 7-55 destroyed England in the first innings.

Pakistan cricket team haven’t lost a single test series since the English tour 2010. They’ve played 13 test matches since August 2010, winning 7, drawing 5 and losing only 1 with a win percentage of 53.8%. Also in 42 ODIs played, Pakistan have won 33 and lost only 9 with a win percentage of 78.57%. 

Happy New Year, everyone. Before you look forward to 2012 it’s time to look back at South Africa’s 2011.

1. Summary of 2011

There were three issues that defined 2011 in South Africa.

1) By far the most significant of these was the controversy over the Protection of State Information Bill. For many years the ANC’s critics — white, usually, though not always — have accused the party of having dictatorial tendencies. These accusations have by and large been nonsense. Until now. The Information Bill, which putatively protects state secrets from being released via the media — a canard if ever there was one — represents an Apartheid-style bill in post-apartheid clothing. If government has the ability to control, menace, and punish an independent media, that media ceases to be independent. Let’s say that you trust the current iteration of the ANC. And let’s say, fairly, that even as the party has had the necessary 2/3 of the vote, or close to it, to allow them unilaterally to amend the constitution, it has not done so. But whenever an act of government such as this passes a useful question to ask is not what this dispensation might do with it, but rather what a future, more draconian dispensation might do. The question is not whether one should trust this government. The question is whether to trust any potential future government.

What has been reassuring has been the extent to which the passage of the bill met with vibrant public dissent. Arguably civil society became more engaged with this issue than any other political question in the post-apartheid era. “Black Tuesday” protests both real and symbolic (in the form of wearing black and in many cases tape over one’s mouth) took place across the country and dominated the news cycle and brought out the best among journalists and public intellectuals. So far all of this protest was to little avail, but it is telling that South Africans did not passively take this news or gnash teeth and ball their fists impotently.

2) During the World War II era in the United States (and in other parts of the world) labor unions had tremendous potential leverage but chose not to exercise it, deciding instead to act for what they believe was the greater good. But once the war ended, so too did the gentleman’s agreement about mass strikes and as a result labor actions proliferated. The Public Sector Strikes that hammered South Africa throughout the country’s winter of labour discontent revealed both the extent of working class dissatisfaction with the ANC and served to reveal the hangover from the 2010 World Cup. By and large the unions chose not to strike during the World Cup the previous winter, but those chickens roosted this year and then some. COSATU may be in alliance with the ANC from an official governance standpoint. But the unions flexed their muscles throughout 2011, once again revealing that the tripartite Alliance might not be on all that sound footing.

3) The ANC’s very public rebuke of Julius Malema, the ANC Youth League’s enfant terrible, represents the latest act but not the last act in an ongoing drama. Malema stands, I’m going to assume, as the country’s Phoenix in waiting. Like Richard Nixon in the early 1960s Malema has vowed that he has exited politics. Trust me — whatever he says, Malema is not done with public life in South Africa. He is destined to rise from the ashes, and when he does, he will carry significant numbers of supporters with him. Maybe not enough to change the country’s political calculus, but enough to make the party hierarchy uncomfortable.

2. Most Unexpected Event

1) In a country where the unexpected is expected it is hard to identify one shocking event or incident. But for observers of South African sport 2011 was not a great year. The Springboks exited the World Cup in rather desultory fashion (though they did outplay Australia in every aspect of the game but the scoreboard, the scoreboard is the only measure that matters). Bafana Bafana was left on the outside looking in when the national team’s leadership did not realize that more than a tie was necessary to progress to the continent’s championship. And the Proteas? Well, they continue to be the best international cricket team never to assert its dominance and they don’t seem any closer to doing so now than they have since their return to international cricket.

But seriously — not knowing the rules of advancement for a major international tournament? Unforgivable.

2) I do know that many of you may not be as sports mad as I am. So the other big surprise, at least for me, was the anticlimactic way that Julius Malema stepped down from his perch at the ANC Youth League. Despite Malema’s Nixonian pronouncements that he’s done with public life, such disavowals are in the nature of the political phoenix. I’m willing to place wagers that we will, in fact, have Julius Malema to kick around in years to come.

3. Person/Group of the Year

There are three possibilities.

1) In a country where everything is political, especially that which isn’t, and that is so dominated by the ANC not only politically but culturally as well, is it any surprise that President Jacob Zuma stands at the top of this list? Love him, hate him, or tolerate him, Zuma is the essential figure in South African political life. It is quite possible that Zuma will face a political storm at the end of the year, but, assuming that he still holds on to power in the party he is likely to continue to maintain this spot for some time to come.

2) For sheer significance in a year in which a mass of public sector workers flexed some muscles and reminded people of the potentially outsized role of COSATU it is hard to overstate the importance of COSATU General Seceratary Zwelinzima Vavi. Vavi emerges every so often to speak, and when he does so, people listen. Vavi could prove to be a kingmaker. Keep an eye on him.

3) For all of the reasons stated above (and for more stated below) Julius Malema continues to be a vital figure in the country’s politics, no less so because of his avowal that he is exiting public life.

4. Forecast for 2012

1) Is the country looking at another Polokwane Moment? In December the ANC will meet in Magaung and in so doing will elect the party president and thus the almost certain winner of the country’s next national elections (and lots of other elected positions of importance). You will recall that in December 2007 the ANC ousted Thabo Mbeki from the party presidency, which began the process of his ultimate humiliation in stepping down from the presidency of the country months later. Jacob Zuma was the chief beneficiary of the events in Polokwane. But many in the party have not been especially comfortable with Zuma either personally or politically. And understandably so.

Will this dissatisfaction give way to a push similar to the one that pushed Mbeki from party leadership? The odds are against it, but Zuma has more detractors within the party than an ANC president should find comfortable. A further irony is that the ANC Youth League might be looking for Zuma’s scalp. There are rumors that Thabo Mbeki might be their man. How unfathomable would that be?

2) More on Malema: Indeed, I would not be surprised if he is visible by the time of the ANC’s party conference in Mangaung in December. Malema may for the time being be persona non grata in the ANC. But will that endure if there is enough of a public clamoring for Malema’s redemption? And if that does not happen, might Malema look toward another political party and another political party toward him?

3) And expect the ANC centenary to dominate the year. And for current party leaders to cloak themselves in that history. Whatever other predictions I make, this one, I’m pretty certain, will be right.

(By the way, in last year’s Year in Review post, which was about the continent as a whole, I think I did respectably in my forecast. The key? Much like with astrology or fortune telling, don’t get too specific!)

5. Best Book of 2011

In a year of good books about Africa, if I have to choose one to recommend, I would go with Stephen Chan’s fine Southern Africa: Old Treacheries and New Deceits, in which a respected academic expert on the region provides an accessible overview of the state of affairs in Southern Africa with particular emphasis on South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Zambia.

Have a great 2012, and thanks for reading.

The year 2011 for Southern Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa in general, will probably be remembered for what did not happen in the light of the people-powered uprising and protests that swept across the globe.

In the Arab world, in particular North Africa, what is being now referred to as the Arab Spring made 2011 a tough year for the dictatorial regimes of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, and of course Gaddafi, who was killed in Libya. In the Western world, a movement that started as Occupy Wall Street in New York stirred up similar protests across major cities in the US, Britain, Italy, Germany, France, Spain, Portugal and Asian countries as citizens fought back against growing greed and inequality. Public anger over the debt crisis brought down Prime Minister George Papandreou and Silvio Berlusconi in Greece and Italy respectively.

Yet, despite the Southern African region’s high level of poverty, unemployment, and inequality, we did not see a wave of public anger similar to what we have seen across the globe. In a case study of five Southern African countries, the Open Society Initiative for Southern Africa has found that poverty and inequality is tearing apart Zimbabwe, Swaziland, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa and Angola, with many citizens living on a mere US$1 per day. The irony here is that some of those countries, such as Namibia and South Africa, are resource-rich countries with some of the highest GDP in the world.

Amid this global backlash against greed and inequality, why were most Southern African streets (apart from isolated and sporadic protests in Malawi and Swaziland) empty, quiet, and business as usual? What happened to the militant spirit that has sent many young people toyi-toying in the streets of Namibia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa against colonialism, poverty, and social injustice in the 60s and 80s?

One answer given for this widespread citizenry indifference in Southern African has been explained in terms of the belief that some of the governments in the region would not hesitate to use harsh measures if confronted by an Arab Spring-like mass action. True to this, in Zimbabwe some 45 activists were rounded up and charged with treason for watching a Mideast uprising video. In Malawi, the security force launched a violent crackdown on the protestors, leaving at least 18 protestors dead. In Swaziland, pro-democracy activists were banned, arrested, tear-gassed, and sprayed with water cannons.

It is also true that when the uprising was under way in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, none of the Southern Africa governments (well, South Africa maybe did but flip-flopped later to save face with the radicals within the ANC and other hawkish Africanists in the region) picked up a phone to urge Mubarak, Gadaffi, or Ben Ali to exercise restraint in dealing with the protestors. Instead, what we heard from Southern African governments was the usual song of complaint about Western interference in Africa’s internal matters.

But here is another explanation: Southern African citizens’ indifference can be explained in a “been there and done that” syndrome. This is because in some ways Southern Africa is a little bit ahead of North Africa in terms of democratization, meaning that most governments in Southern Africa are products of democracy and came to power through elections. Whereas North Africa might have been stable and economically advanced but did not have democratic governments. However, a distinctive characteristic of the southern African democracy is that not only we have a democracy without democrats but also a democracy without citizens. Southern Africa’s democracies did not and do not produce citizens but subjects controlled by governments due to the hierarchical nature of Southern African politics which demands obedience and loyalty from citizens. Why? Although they claim to have fought for democracy (such as SWAPO in Namibia, ANC in South Africa, MPLA in Angola, FRELIMO in Mozambique and ZANU-PF in Zimbabwe), most ruling parties in Southern Africa don’t operate as democrats. Their politics and decision making processes are highly centralized. By the way, the same can also be said about most opposition political parties too.

It is against the backlog of this unquestioning and uncritical citizenry, that we understand why Mugabe is still in power today and why most ruling parties in that region have won elections with landslide victory. This is why the Namibian president can place a moratorium on public discussions about the SWAPO presidential succession. And this is why the ANC-dominated National Assembly in South Africa can pass a law (reversing the gains made against apartheid repressive laws and policies) to limit free speech.

On the flip side, events in North Africa made the world forget (as the international media and world government shifted its attention to the Arab Spring) about Southern Africa, especially with regard to what’s going on in Zimbabwe and Malawi

Here are a few predictions for 2012: The ruling party SWAPO’s 2012 election campaign to replace the incumbent Namibian president when his term expires is shaping up to be between Geingob (who is the vice president of SWAPO) and me Pendukeni Ithana (who is the secretary of SWAPO). One is believed to be a technocrat and the other a populist. But both are insiders, so expect less change here if either of them wins. What is clear, however, is that another potential split (this would be the third split if it happens) from the ruling party is looming as the in-fighting has already started. More is too come as we inch closer to Election Day.

In Zimbabwe, it is clear that the opposition party MDC (MDC has lost the mojo, and has been weakened by in-fighting too) is not the party that will bring down Mugabe (as it was hoped), but expect a potential split within the ruling ZANU-PF party. As Mugabe’s health continues to deteriorate, we expect infighting as members vie for control and Mugabe’s position.

On the other hand, South Africa will continue walking the populist road and of course with less transparent governance. Unless restored, expect the worst from Malawi because its life line support, which is aid from the international community, has been cut off, which is going to make life difficult for ordinary citizens. Angola and Mozambique (riding on oil) will continue unabated because we don’t really hear much about these two countries in terms of international coverage anyway. The remaining question is will Swaziland eventually collapse economically, or has it already collapsed?

Months after South Sudan emerged as the world’s newest country, celebrations have died down and the government in Juba must address the numerous challenges that face the fledgling nation. Apart from addressing unresolved issues with the north and the many domestic challenges, the key to South Sudan’s progress will be maintaining good governance. Much of this will depend on President Salva Kiir and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement’s (SPLM) abilities to address the needs of the South Sudanese, but also to allow the people’s voices to be heard.

The management of South Sudan’s political dynamics will be a vital indicator in measuring the country’s democratic progress. The SPLM, once Sudan’s political opposition movement with a military branch known as the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), fought against the government in Khartoum for more than two decades. The SPLM is now the ruling party of South Sudan.

The SPLM enjoys broad support throughout the country. According to a September poll conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI), 91 percent of people who belong to a political party belong to the SPLM. Furthermore, 84 percent of respondents view the SPLM either “very favorably” or “favorably.” Such support is not surprising. South Sudanese view the SPLM/A as their liberators in the long struggle against the north, and according to some experts, it is considered treasonous to speak ill of the SPLM.

While the majority of respondents expressed favorability for the SPLM, their views regarding the necessity of political parties were less definitive. Thirty-eight percent of voters agreed with the statement that political parties create division and confusion and are unnecessary in South Sudan. This is compared to a small majority (53 percent) of respondents who believe political parties are needed to make sure the South Sudanese have a say in who governs them.

While the poll does not reveal the reasoning for this division, it’s clear that the South Sudanese majority is content with the SPLM and is divided on the necessity of political parties. Confident with broad public support, the SPLM-led government has made few efforts to encourage the organization of political parties. South Sudan’s administrative system of governance has remained unchanged since liberation, and the SPLM dominates cabinet positions and nongovernmental institutions across the country. The political parties that do exist are not well known, and some have failed to transition from a revolutionary platform to one that works within the democratic process. While South Sudan’s interim constitution includes political parties in the governing process, critics warn that the constitution is skewed to favor the SPLM and preserve its hold on power.

The United States, a lead mediator during the creation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, is a major investor in South Sudan’s government. Since 2005, the U.S. has spent $10 billion for humanitarian relief in support of the peace process and U.N. peacekeeping operations. In an interview with Voice of America, Susan Page, Washington’s first ambassador to South Sudan, emphasized the need for South Sudan to create “a democratic space to allow other political parties to openly express their views.” A major component of this will be enshrining the rights of political parties in the new constitution. The United States must urge South Sudan’s government to encourage a vibrant civil society via political activity. Having an engaged and active electorate puts pressure on the government to respond to the country’s needs. American NGOs such as IRI, which have had success in assisting political party growth in Africa (e.g. Zimbabwe’s Movement for Democratic Change), can facilitate this.

A crucial element of democracy is leaders’ acceptance of defeat when they have lost the confidence of the people. Too often in Africa, rebel groups have been successful in overthrowing autocracies, only to fall into the same pattern as their predecessors. Having amassed significant goodwill from the international community, South Sudan has the potential to be a success story. This opportunity must not be wasted.