The 5th International Power Generation Conference & Exhibition 2012 was held at Marriott, Karachi on the 2nd of February with the agenda ‘Future Energy Mix in Overcoming the Power Crisis’.

The conference was attended by a plethora of scientists  and dignitaries from all walks of life.

 

 

It was a star-studded event with speeches and presentations from Manzoor Soomro- Chairman Pakistan Science Foundation (PSF), Mian Abrar Hussain, President Karachi Chamber of Commerce, Dr. Tilo Klinner – Consul General Germany, Nasim Khan VC Hamdard University, Saigan Sharif – Additional Secretary of Ministry of Science & Technology, Qazi Kamal – Chairman Fuel, Gas, Power Sub-SITE Association, Tahir Saleem – Chairman IEEE, Zubair Motiwala – Chairman Board of Investment Govt. of Pakistan, Naeem Qureshi – Managing Editor Energy Update, Shazia Marri – Minister for Electric Power Sindh, Junaid Qureshi – CEO SSJD, Faisal Qureshi – CEO 24/7 Online TV, Abdullah Muhammad Yousuf – Chairman IPP’s Advisory Council, Rukhsana Zuberi – Chairperson women in energy, Shaaf Mehboob – CEO Adoptive Solar.

The conference was organized by Energy Update Magazine 

Here’s  a brief lowdown of what went on in the conference.

 

Manzoor Soomro- Chairman Pakistan Science Foundation (PSF):

• Promote and popularize science.
• Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) signed with all chambers of commerce in Pakistan.
• Reach is not limited to MOUs but to universities and beyond.
• Provide funding to research institutes.
• Enormous potential in both conserving and generating energy cost-effectively, only it needs to be channeled out properly.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjVeR4LkS-Y&feature=youtu.be

Mian Abrar Hussain, President Karachi Chamber of Commerce

• The energy crisis and resulting loadshedding of electricity and gas has resulted in a staggering monetary loss of Rs.288 Billion per annum. 
• This is a loss of Rs.24 Billion per month, or Rs.857 million per day. 
• This much money could have been used to finance 44 Large scale manufacturing units or serve 10 million unemployed people. 
• $12 Billion is the annual import bill for furnace oil. 
•  30% of energy wasted in distribution. 
• Energy security plan is needed on the same lines as Nuclear Security Plan to safeguard the future of Pakistan.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqekJYHaYPE&feature=youtu.be

Naeem Qureshi – Managing Editor Energy Update

• Welcomed the participants to the fifth PowerGen Pak Conference.
• Thanked the speakers and the guest for gracing the occasion with their presence, and the sponsors for lending support to this worthy cause.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cW-k4nvLqBY&feature=youtu.be

Dr. Tilo Klinner – Consul General Germany

• Renewable energy is the future of the world due to depleting natural sources of fuel.
• Wind energy percentage contribution to electricity generation in the world:
  • 21% Denmark
  • 15% Portugal
  • 14% Spain
  • 7.5% Germany
  • There’s a 40 MW plant in Gujarat, India run solely on solar power.
  • 17,000 MW contribution by solar power to national grid in Germany.
  • There are large lignite coal fields in Eastern Germany which provide the bulk of the power. However, they’ve a large carbon footprint.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4g2VPhRjAI&feature=youtu.be

Nasim Khan VC Hamdard University

• In 1999, a German company estimated the wind corridor in Pakistan to be worth 50,000 MW.
• Research by an American University put the estimate at 110,000 MW.
• Germany has been able to capture and make use of 17,000 MW of solar energy in spite of the fact that Germany doesn’t get as much sun as Pakistan.
• Due to circular debt, electric companies are unable to afford wind power companies.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6qVKkA-dRc&feature=youtu.be

Saigan Sharif – Additional Secretary of Ministry of Science & Technology:

• Karachi to Gwadar corridor has the potential of 7,000-10,000 MW generation through wind energy.
• Nexus needed between government, research institutes and industry for a workable plan.
• Much of the existing problems are due to lack of understanding between the three.
• Government has its own limits and cannot launch projects based on research by institutes. However it can support them in conjunction with the industry.
• Scientists have the tendency to quarrel amongst themselves for who gets the patent to an invention or innovation.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QR-kpByM8EE&feature=youtu.be

Qazi Kamal – Chairman Fuel, Gas, Power Sub-SITE Association

• There are 104 Nuclear power plants in US and 70 in France which contribute roughly 20% of total electricity.
• 35% of power in Western Europe is achieved through nuclear means.
• China has plans to set up 40 nuclear power plants.
• India plans to generate 63,000 MW of nuclear energy by 2032 with the help of General Electric USA.
• Pakistan only gets 712 MW of nuclear energy.
• Pakistan has substantial reserves of uranium, 500 times more than gold in various mines all over the country.
• Pakistan also has 5% uranium enrichment capability.
• 2,000MW energy through KANUP 2 and 3 will be attained.
• 8,000MW is the target for nuclear energy.
• The establishment of Pakistan Nuclear Power Fuel Complex will go a long way in attaining self-sufficiency in nuclear energy.

Tahir Saleem – Chairman IEEE:

• Problem with energy usage not energy production.
• KESC has installed capacity of 1260MW but only 600MW of power are being delivered by them.
• WAPDA had planned 40,000MW of electricity by 2010. Hardly 2,000MW have been added.
• 10-15% of energy saving is possible without any investment.
• 22% of energy saving is possible with investment.
• 70% of electrical consumption is by the industry.
• Load lightening devices are available which reduce electrical consumption.
• Government should make it mandatory for the industry to install these devices which will reduce the electrical load on the national grid.
• Co-generation provides 30% additional energy, a strategy which is being used by hotels.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ntFBeYYd9E&feature=youtu.be

Zubair Motiwala – Chairman Board of Investment, Govt. of Pakistan

• 22,000 MW is the installed capacity.
• Rs.300 Bn circular debt in July, now touching Rs.400 Bn.
• 12 hours of loadshedding in the industrial areas until 2 weeks ago.
• Pakistan has the fifth largest coal reserves in the world – 173Bn which will last 300 years.
• Thar has huge reserves of lignite coal as determined by research carried out by RW Germany.
• Special incentives offered by Pakistan Board of Investment for investing in Pakistan’s coal reserves:
  • 20% Return on Equity
  • 30 years tax holiday
  • No custom duty on import of machinery
  • Sales tax exemption
  • United Energy, 3 Gorges and Engro are some of the companies interested in this investment.
  • In 2015 the first powerplant using the thar coal would be operational.
  • Pak-Chine energy commission has determined that there’s a 80km wide as well as long wind corridor with speeds up to 800 knots, which is more than India.
  • A Turkish company is already operating wind turbines in Sindh which are producing 5MW.
  • 34 more turbines are in the offing which will raise the output to 50MW.
  • Plans are in place to allow duty-free import of batteries to store wind energy.
  • Break-up of contribution to electricity:
    • 1/3^rd Hydel
    • 1/3^rd  Thermal
    • 1/3^rd  Diesel/captive/nuclear

 

• Contribution of gas to national grid:
  • Sindh 69%
  • Balochistan 13%
  • Punjab 5%
  • Share of gas:
    • 27% Sindh
    • 17% Balochistan
    • 45% Punjab
    • Total production was 3800 mmcf, now 200 mmcf have been added making to 4,000 mmcf.
    • Sindh gets 1150 mmcf and Punjab 1800 mmcf.
    • There are 2700 CNG stations in Punjab while 800 CNG stations in Sindh and Balochistan.
    • Most of these 2700 CNG stations in Punjab are illegal connections given after 2007 and result in shortage of gas as the network has become so much convoluted.  
    • 40,000 of unutilized hydel capacity in Pakistan.
    • 2,000 MW for 300 years possible from Thar coal reserves.
    • 15,000 MW addition expected from Thar coal by 2020.

 TO BE CONTINUED IN THE NEXT PART……..

No related posts.

The cold snap that has frozen most of Europe solid has created some tensions over Russia’s role as supplier of natural gas to its neighbors. On Friday, a Gazprom official claimed that Ukraine was taking more than its share from the pipeline that runs through its territory. For those who remember the unpleasantness between Moscow and Kiev in 2006 and 2009 over natgas prices, this came as an awkward reminder that when demand soars, it’s still every nation for itself.

CFO of Gazprom, Andrei Kruglov, admitted yesterday that the fault lay not with Ukraine but rather with his company’s export capacity. “Gazprom at the moment cannot supply the extra volumes our West European partners are asking for,” he told President Putin according to Reuters. Moreover, the cold in Russia has increased demand there. So, for a few days, Russia reduced the amount of gas it was putting into the pipeline in the first place.

The good news here is that many of Gazprom’s customers have increased with stockpiles, and so the 10% decrease many experienced did not cause any enduring hardship. With gas from the pipeline selling at record prices (more than US$400 per 1,000 cubic meters), alternatives are coming on line, which will help diversify supply, including liquefied natural gas. And Russia is not the only source of natgas. For example, Norway is maintaining its reputation as a reliable supplier to the UK. Because of the cold, UK demand was just shy of 378 million cubic metres (mcm) on Saturday, about 63.5 mcm higher that usual. Still, flows from Norway continued at 380 mcm.

Russia sees that it must improve its ability to service customers, Reuters has reported, “Gazprom increased its gas supplies to Europe to 150 billion cubic metres (bcm) from around 138.6 bcm in 2010. It is aiming to ramp up those volumes to around 164 bcm this year thanks partly to the underwater Nord Stream pipeline commissioned last November. Nord Stream’s initial capacity stands at 27.5 billion cubic metres a year, which may be doubled by the fourth quarter. Russia is also pushing for a South Stream pipeline to rival the EU-backed Nabucco and other supply lines. Moscow plans to ship over 60 bcm of gas to Europe via South Stream starting from 2015.”

However, you have to wonder if this is going to be sufficient given that some countries in Western Europe (e.g., Germany) have decided to end their nuclear power generation. While the ideal replacements are renewables, it’s so very easy to buy gas from Russia and elsewhere that the additional capacity envisioned may not be good enough.

The right to life is unquestionably one of the biggest human rights debates in the United States. Some argue there is never an acceptable reason for the termination of a pregnancy, others will allow it in the case of a medical emergency or to save the life of the mother, some are for the use of only early term abortion, others argue that it is simply the mother’s choice.  The recent March for Life in DC this month is only one manifestation of this debate, which has been a major battle amongst individuals and parties since the historic Roe vs. Wade decision. However, the U.S. is not the only country where the issue of abortion is controversial.

Many developing countries are losing the battle against harmful and illegal abortion practices that significantly impact female health and family planning.  The practice of unsafe abortions is one of the leading contributors to maternal death worldwide.  These practices are often conducted outside hospitals or clinics, or lack qualified or any real medical supervision. Women who undergo unsafe abortions are prone to dangerous infection or bleeding, many of these women then go untreated due to both fear or shame and a lack of access to adequate healthcare.

Recently, a new study entitled, Induced abortion: incidence and trends worldwide from 1995 to 2000, was released by the New York Guttmacher Institute.  The study found that the number of women having induced abortions has remained high since their 2003 report, which had shown an initial reduction in induced abortions.  The report stated that while abortion rates had fallen from 1995 levels, they have now leveled off. The rise in world population is only a partial explanation for 2.2 million more abortions in 2008 compared to 2003.

“The declining abortion trend we had seen globally has stalled, and we are also seeing a growing proportion of abortions occurring in developing countries, where the procedure is often clandestine and unsafe. This is cause for concern,” says Gilda Sedgh , lead author of the study and a senior researcher at the Guttmacher Institute. “This plateau coincides with a slowdown in contraceptive uptake. Without greater investment in quality family planning services, we can expect this trend to persist.”

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), complications from unsafe or illegal abortions  were the cause for an estimated 13% of all maternal deaths worldwide in 2008; almost all of these deaths occurred in developing countries. Globally, unsafe abortion accounted for 220 deaths per 100,000 procedures in 2008, 350 times the rate associated with legal induced abortions in the United States (0.6 per 100,000). Unsafe abortion is also a significant cause of ill-health. Each year approximately 8.5 million women in developing countries experience abortion complications serious enough to require medical attention, and three million of them do not receive the needed care.

The study also found that that laws restricting abortion were not not tied to lower abortion rates. In areas where abortion is heavily restricted, rates of the practice were actually higher.  The 2008 abortion rate in Africa was 29 per 1,000 women of childbearing age and in South America it was 32 per 1,000; while in Western Europe, where abortion is permitted by law, the rate was only 12 per 1,000.

 ”These latest figures are deeply disturbing. The progress made in the 1990s is now in reverse. Promoting and implementing policies to reduce the number of abortions is now an urgent priority for all countries and for global health agencies, such as WHO,” says Richard Horton, editor of The Lancet. “Condemning, stigmatizing, and criminalizing abortion are cruel and failed strategies. It’s time for a public health approach that emphasizes reducing harm – and that means more liberal abortion laws.”

The difference in rates has prompted many in the field to advocate for looser abortion laws on a global scale. However, others argue that better family planning programs, including education and increased access to birth-control, are they key to the problem.  As noted in the post, Leaders meet to put family planning on the global agenda, their are 215 million women worldwide without access to family planning, a staggering number that will only increase as the global population continues to rise.  Therefore, the issue of female health and family planning must become an international priority if there is to be a decline in maternal deaths.

• Facts on Induced Abortion Worldwide
• Regional factsheets on induced abortion (Africa, Asia, Latin America)
• Graphics illustrating key findings of report
• International Data Center
• In Harms Way: The Impact of Kenya’s Abortion Law
• Maternal Mortality and Morbidity Statistics from Unsafe Abortion

Thanks to Real Clear History, I found this fascinating story about how the United States used spy satellites to map Soviet Russia’s territory during the Cold War. It is from The Atlantic magazine and features an informative video that explains the 1950′s program in a very straightforward way for us political, not hard, science nerds. I highly recommend going to read the article, but here’s the 10 minute video right here:

I have for years thought that a study should be done on how spy satellites have impacted international relations. It seems to me that if one country can keep a close eye on an other’s strategic capabilities and movement and that side knows it is being watched, it would curtail warfare. Like the idea that if you put cameras in a 7-11 it will stop or at least deter robberies. That being said, I’m pretty sure 7-11′s still get robbed once in a while. Anyways, The Atlantic’s Alexis Madrigal highlights this idea in of his 5 things that stick out about this particular spy satellite program:

2. Some historians, at least, believe that spy satellites helped keep the Cold War cool. By providing planners with some information about what was going on behind the iron curtain, they kept the fever dreams of our decisionmakers in check. “At the height of the Cold War, our ability to receive this kind of technical intelligence was incredible,” space historian Dwayne Day told the AP. “We needed to know what they were doing and where they were doing it, and in particular if they were preparing to invade Western Europe. Hexagon created a tremendous amount of stability because it meant American decision makers were not operating in the dark.”

Well, what did you think of the video? The spy satellite program itself? Or the theory that a watched enemy is a quite one?

Africa’s economic prospects have always been a topic of great consternations for local governments and international analysts and commentators.  A continent rich in commodities (oil, diamonds, minerals), with a favorable demographic trends, and the potential for economic growth, has historically been ‘stuck in the muck’.  Yet, things are turning around, and the past decade has seen consistent economic growth (faster than East Asia’s), a 200% increase in trade with the rest of the world, a decline in foreign debt (by a quarter) and budget deficits (by two thirds), and inflation in the single digits (8%).

Although there still a lot to be done throughout the continent, a recent article by The Economist (Africa’s hopeful economies: The sun shines bright) was talking about the emergence of Africa’s “Lion Economies.”  However, the global financial crisis which, has crippled the U.S. and EU economies and is threatening global trade and commodity prices, could also derail Africa’s economic prospects and its significant progress to sustainable growth.

With this in mind, in January 2012, the African Union Heads of State and Government will hold their annual summit and focus on the theme of “Boosting Intra-Africa Trade”.  The choice of the theme is both appropriate and timely, given the challenges facing the continents ability to continue to rely on global trade and high commodity prices for growth, and the need to come up with strategies to improve the situation.

On average over the past decade, only about 10 – 13% of African trade is with African nations, whilst 40% of North American trade is with other North American countries, and 63% of trade by countries in Western Europe is with other Western European nations.

To this end, African countries have established the African Union, and created various Regional Economic Communities (RECs) to improve growth through trade.  In this context, the RECs are pursuing integration through free trade, and developing customs unions and a common market.  Eventually, these efforts are expected to converge to an African Common Market (ACM) and an African Economic Community (AEC), whereby economic, fiscal, social and sectoral policies will be continentally uniform.

Pooling economies and markets together through regional integration provides a sufficiently wide economic and market space to make economies of scale possible.  Trade enables countries to specialize and export goods that they can produce cheaply, in exchange for what others can provide at a lower cost.  Trade also provides the material means in terms of capital goods, machinery and raw and semi-finished goods that are critical for growth.

More importantly, through such an economic marketplace, Africa can strengthen its economic independence and empowerment with respect to the rest of the world.  A united Africa can better negotiate for access to markets (foreign and domestic), commodity prices, foreign investment and technology transfers with its trading partners in the U.S. and the EU.

Even more importantly, is the ability to negotiate better terms of trade with the BRIC countries, which operate more nationalistically in the global market then the U.S.-EU market economies (negotiating with governments vs. negotiating with corporations).  A generation ago, Brazil, Russia, India and China accounted for just 1% of African trade.  Today they make up 20%, and by 2030 the rate is expected to be 50%.  Therefore, as the BRIC economies go, so will Africa’s economic prosperity – thus enhancing the negotiating needs of the continent vis-à-vis the BRIC countries.

A New Continental FTA –

Therefore, if trade is a vehicle to growth and development, then removing the barriers that inhibit it can only help increase its impact.  In order to address this trend, African leaders are making new commitments to boosting intra-African trade.

First was the landmark decision by COMESA, EAC (East Africa Community – Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda) and SADC to establish a single Free Trade Area.  The launch of this tripartite FTA initiative covering 26 African countries (more than half of AU membership) with a combined population of 530 million (57% of Africa’s population) and a total GDP of $630 billion (53% of Africa’s total GDP) has galvanized interest towards a much broader Continental FTA.

It will enlarge markets for goods and services, eliminate the problem of multiple and overlapping memberships, enhance customs cooperation and broader trade facilitation, promote harmonization and coordination of trade instruments and nomenclature, and broader relaxation of restrictions on movement of goods, persons and services.

The collaboration and cooperation of RECs through the Continental FTA should further improve regional infrastructure and consolidate regional markets through improved interconnectivity in all forms of transport and communication as well as promote energy pooling to enhance the regions’ competitiveness.

Export-led Growth Alternatives –

The one lesson from South-East Asia that all developing countries and regions must never forget is that export-led growth will always produce desirable economic benefits.  Focusing on existing areas where the continent has a comparative advantage (fuels, minerals, and even food products) will continue to generate valuable returns to be invested in those areas that need additional financing.

Food production in particular (along with beverages, tobacco, and other agricultural products) could be a boondoggle for African countries.  Although the continent as a whole is a food importer (see chart from a recent Issue Paper prepared by the AU Commission for the 2012 AU Summit), Africa has 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land.  With rising populations in Asia, food is becoming more and more valuable, and global food prices and constantly rising.  Africa more than Europe is in need of ‘Common Agricultural Policy’ which puts real focus and energy (meaning financing) behind this potentially very profitable segment of the economy.

However, as the Commissions Issue Paper points out, the continents infrastructure and logistic shortcomings make all efforts to increase trade (export or intra-African) very expensive and uncompetitive.  In particular, because of infrastructure bottleneck (roads, ports, telecommunications, and storage) transport costs are 63% higher in African countries compared with the average in developed countries (and constitute 14% of the value exported in African countries, against 8.6% in developed countries).

Furthermore, delays at African customs are, on average, longer than in the rest of the world: 12 days in Sub-Saharan countries compared with 7 days in Latin America, less than 6 days in Central and East Asia, and slightly more than 4 days in Central and East Europe.  These delays add a tremendous cost to importers and exporters, and they increase the transaction costs of trading among African countries.  Each transport day lost due to customs and related problems are equivalent to additional tax.  In addition, delays and complicated procedures related to insuring goods and customs guarantee requirements raise the cost of exporting from Africa and compromise the continent’s competitiveness.  For food and agricultural (perishable) goods, such delays can be devastating – leading to the complete loss of entire shipments.

The Road Ahead –

For Africa, it often seems that the obstacles outweigh the potential for sustainable poverty alleviation and continuing economic growth.  The current situation is hanging in the balance, especially after the global financial crisis and the recent political upheaval in the north (see Arab Spring).

But, incrementally, it appears that the leaders of the African Union are fully aware of the way forward; a Continental FTA that focuses on Intra-African trade.  The road (for regional integration) is long and hard, but if the AU can ‘build it’ then goods will come and go, and trade could do for Africa what it has done for South and East Asia.