Posted on 13 February 2012 by Tea Server
Posted on 10 February 2012 by Tea Server
Brazil has been affected in recent weeks by suggestions of a slow down in Brazil’s usually hot economy. Inflation in China also has received some attention. The result was that some market studies have been done on the BRICS and emerging economies showing that countries like Mexico, South Africa and Vietnam are doing quite well and that China keeps on moving along to attract investment, even with signs of inflationary pressures. In a Bloomberg article on the top emerging markets, China was the only one of the BRICS to make the medal round, with Thailand and Chile taking the silver and bronze positions. Frontier markets, those who are not BRICS or possible future BRICS but had noticeable growth, also made their own listing with Vietnam at the top of the list. South Africa and Mexico made the top ten of emerging markets, South Africa already being seen as one of the BRICS and Mexico achieving record reserves despite slow growth in the US and local narcotics violence.
This year Mexico will elect a new President and Senate and the parties are slowly presenting their candidates for the upcoming six-year Presidential term. President Calderon has served his one and only legislated term in office of six years and it will remain to be seen whether his PAN party will be re-elected. With excellent economic numbers in a slow global economy, the PAN has a good chance of being re-elected. What might hurt the party is the open drug war in Mexico currently taking place that was a result of Mr. Calderon pressing for drug security in Mexico and the entrenched drug networks that have been established in Mexico over the last few decades. With former PAN President Vicente Fox pushing for a legalisation of the narcotics trade to reduce violence in Mexico, the PAN may have some soul searching to do before putting the Presidential campaign into full force.
A decent market measure for all economies can often been seen in the aviation industries response to different national economies. In Mexico, the now defunct Mexicana Airlines is showing some signs of re-emerging in Mexico after its financial collapse a few years ago. Emerging markets in general has seen some attention from the aviation industry in general as many companies seek customers in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, a result of region market growth in general through to 2016. While the aviation industry is not being displaced in North America and Europe, it does show that BRICS and other emerging and frontier markets will produce trade expansion while the US and eventually the EU drag themselves out of economic paralysis. A conference on competitiveness and innovation addressing the aviation industry by GE named “GE American Competitiveness: What Works” will deal with issues of expansion to emerging markets and strategies in the current US market slowdown next week in Washington DC. Anyone who wishes to see how one industry is handling expansion to emerging markets and growth in the time of economic slowdown should seek information from the conference presenters and organizers. With the possible re-birth of Mexicana and troubles in Asia with the A380, it is certain to be an interesting week of presentations. Information on the conference can be found here.
Posted on 09 February 2012 by Tea Server
Head of the Department of Philosophy, Government College for Women University of Mysore, Mandya-571401 (Karnatika).
Re-printed from “Islam and Modern age”, Hydrabad, March 1978.
Posted on 08 February 2012 by Tea Server
By Jamie Alter for Cricket Next
Pakistan’s 3-0 sweep of England, the No. 1 Test team, in the UAE was the most glittering result for a team that has managed to hold its own on the field despite facing a mountain of problems off it. Here’s a look at the key players in Pakistan’s resurgence as a Test team.
Misbah-ul-Haq
Ten months ago, Misbah-ul-Haq was a condemned man whose time as an international cricketer seemed over after he was made the scapegoat for Pakistan’s defeat to India in the World Cup semi-final in Mohali. Today, he is being heralded as an astute leader of a team bristling with pride and rightful claims to being a top-level Test side. Handed the captaincy ahead of Pakistan’s series against South Africa in the UAE in 2010, the soft-spoken, almost laidback Misbah has been hugely influential in steering Pakistan from a host of troubles and to series wins over New Zealand, Zimbabwe, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and England – not to forget a draw with South Africa – and just the anomaly of a 1-1 scoreline against West Indies.
He hasn’t always been a proactive captain – his reluctance to push for a win against Sri Lanka in Sharjah last November attracted criticism – but his numbers as leader have been highly impressive: 15 matches, 1165 runs, average 64.72, with one century and 12 fifties. That one century – an unbeaten 102 in the second innings at Basseterre – played a big role in Pakistan leveling the two-Test series in the West Indies in May 2011. Innings of 99 and 70 not out earned him the Man-of-the-Match award in Wellington in January 2011, and those were clutch innings in a draw that gave Pakistan their first series victory outside the subcontinent since a triumph in New Zealand in 2003-04, and their first anywhere since 2006-07. In the first innings of the second Test against England in Abu Dhabi, Misbah top-scored with 84 on day in which the opposition dominated, and what a key innings it proved.
Saeed Ajmal
If there is one player who personifies Pakistan’s new-found aggression and fluency, it is the leader of their immensely proficient spin attack. Ajmal, 34, has been a constant threat to opposing teams with his accurate, nagging and attacking offspin, with his doosra causing batsmen much strife. His role as a strike bowler – he has bowled 696 overs in those 12 Tests, the most for any Pakistan bowler – has taken pressure off Umar Gul and meant he has been relied on to consistently take wickets. His success is staggering.
In 12 Tests under Misbah, Ajmal has reaped 77 wickets an average of 22.63 and strike-rate of 54.20 – significantly lower than career figures of 26.70 and 61.20. Along the way he picked up Man-of-the-Match awards for eight wickets in a nine-wicket win over Sri Lanka and in Dubai and 10 – including a career-best 7 for 55 – in a 10-wicket win over England at the same venue. He was the leading Test wicket-taker in 2011, and so far this year he has grabbed 24 wickets in three Tests against England.
In this recent series, the England batsmen were largely baffled by Ajmal’s variety. In the second Test, he became the fastest Pakistan bowler to 100 Tests, and to make his achievement more remarkable, he has not played a single of his 20 Tests at home.
Abdur Rehman
If Ajmal has been an expected success during Pakistan’s run under Misbah, then the 31-year-old Abdur Rehman has been a surprise package. In 13 Tests, this canny left-arm spinner – enjoying unexpected success in his late-blooming career – has been a constant threat with 64 wickets at an average of 26.57. With an almost immaculate line and length he has attained turn and dip while convincing batsmen to play back when they should have been forward. Nothing summed this up better than the series against England, when he made several reputed batsmen appear hapless against spin, none more so than Eoin Morgan.
However, it was Rehman’s Man-of-the-Match performance against New Zealand at Hamilton in January 2011 that really made him a certainty in the playing XI. His three wickets in each innings and a crucial innings of 28 helped propel Pakistan to victory in the first Test. This year, a career-best 6 for 25 routed England for 72 as Pakistan grabbed the series in Abu Dhabi, and in the final Test his 5 for 40 was decisive in Pakistan reducing England’s lead to 42. His 19 wickets in the series played a huge role in a 3-0 scoreline, and highlighted what a key ingredient Rehman has been for Pakistan.
Like Ajmal, he has bowled a lot of overs – 683.4 – while rarely allowing the batsmen to dominate. Rehman’s batting has been handy too, with an average of 13.s8 and a half-century offering some stability to the lower order.
Umar Gul
The only fast bowler to play consistently under Misbah, Umar Gul has carried himself with discipline all throughout. Ajmal and Rehman have hogged the wickets, but Gul’s 49 victims at 29.79 have been every bit as crucial in the team’s success.
The reliance on spin has eased Gul’s workload – he has bowled 452.5 overs in 13 matches – and this has undoubtedly led to the tall fast bowler not breaking down from injury, as he was prone to do so earlier in his career. His eight-wicket haul at Wellington was a stand-out effort in overseas conditions, and even on tracks in the UAE he has plugged away relentlessly, as 29 wickets from eight matches show.
In the first Test in Abu Dhabi, Gul responded to a flat surface with a hostile spell on the third day – during which he surpassed 150 Test wickets – as his new-ball incursions bagged him four wickets before Ajmal and Rehman wrapped up the rest. In the third Test in Abu Dhabi, Gul’s four wickets on the final day set the course of the match categorically towards Pakistan. The spinners have been the talking point of Pakistan’s success, but Gul’s role cannot he underestimated.
Mohammad Hafeez
At last looking like he belongs at Test-match level, Mohammad Hafeez has flourished in his latest avatar as opener and key ingredient in Pakistan’s spin-heavy bowling attack.
With the bat, he has offered solidity to a top order that has for too long been shaky, scoring 967 runs in 15 Tests at an average of 38.68, including two centuries and four fifties. With Taufeeq Umar – another cricketer enjoying a new lease on his international career – Hafeez has stitched together three century stands and four of 50 or more. For a side that used to regularly chop and change openers during the last decade, Hafeez’s pairing with Taufeeq over 15 Tests has been nothing short of solid.
Relied on heavily with the ball – he has bowled 250 overs – Hafeez has repaid the faith with 51 wickets at 26.36. His brisk offspin has helped Ajmal and Rehman take much-needed breaks in the field, and when tossed the new ball in Guyana he responded with wickets. The highlight of Hafeez’s run over these 15 Tests was a fine all-round performance against Zimbabwe in Bulawayo, where Hafeez followed a quick-fire 119 with four wickets and a brisk 38 in a successful chase.
Taufeeq Umar
Given an extended run as opener after a four-year hiatus, the 30-year-old Taufeeq has scored 1055 runs in 15 Tests under Misbah while averaging 39.07. His batting hasn’t always been attractive, as a strike-rate of 43.18 indicates, but the fact that he has been able to deliver platforms has been immense. Two fifties in New Zealand helped blunt the threat of the home team’s pace bowlers in seam-friendly conditions, and his 135 in the second innings against West Indies at Basseterre helped Pakistan level the series.
A career-best 236 followed against Sri Lanka in Abu Dhabi, as Pakistan drew the first Test. It was a marathon effort that helped grind Sri Lanka patiently through the second day, and Taufeeq was just pipped by Kumar Sangakkara for the Man-of-the-Match award. A seventh Test hundred would come against Bangladesh soon after.
Taufeeq’s form trailed off after a fifty in the first innings of the series against England, but his success in Pakistan’s resurgence merits further persistence.
Younis Khan
The former Pakistan captain has come back excellently from a ban imposed by the PCB after allegations that he had been partially responsible for infighting within the team. His 1138 runs at 66.94, including four centuries and four fifties, have been invaluable to Pakistan.
His presence in the middle order has steadied the team numerous times, not least when he scored centuries against South Africa and Sri Lanka to go with twin fifties against New Zealand at Wellington. But his most responsible innings came in the second innings of the third Test against England, as an out of form Younis took the game away from the opposition with a superbly crafted century. Yet again, he had summoned the resolve to produce a century when his detractors were gunning for him.
Azhar Ali
Of the younger players that have flourished under Misbah, 26-year-old Azhar Ali has been the most successful. His 1220 runs from 15 matches at 50.83 include two centuries and 11 fifties, and he has been a consistent performer at No. 3. Three consecutive half-centuries against South Africa got him going after an indifferent start to his career, and from there he ploughed on with fifties against each of the teams he played. His two centuries – 100 against Sri Lanka and 157 against England – were proof that Azhar has a long career ahead of him.
Filed under: cricket, England, Pakistan, Pakistan Cricket Tagged: Abdul Rehman, Alastair Cook, Azhar Ali, cricket, Dubai Stadium, England, England Cricket, India, Kevin Pietersen, Misbah-ul-Haq, Mohammad Hafeez, Pakistan, Pakistan Cricket, Saeed Ajmal, South Africa, South African Cricket, Sri Lanka, Taufeeq Umar, Test Cricket, Umar Gul, Whitewash, Younis Khan
Posted on 02 February 2012 by Tea Server
Here are a few stories that have caught my eye of late, with brief commentary as apt:
In an interesting (but probably passing) change of direction, China is putting pressure on Sudan “to seek urgently the release of 29 Chinese workers held by rebels in the border state of South Kordofan.” China traditionally sees national sovereignty as sacrosanct. But now it is their ox being gored and suddenly a fixed position on questions of national sovereignty seems foolish. Hopefully they keep this incident in mind the next time one of their client states commits brutality against its own people.
The African Union was supposed to decide on its leadership this week. Instead gridlock has set in. South Africa had hoped that its Home Affairs Minister, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, would emerge victorious, but she has been unable to garner enough votes. As this story has developed I have been skeptical of whether or not Dlamini-Zuma could muster enough supports. Not because she is not qualified. But rather because South Africa occupies an interesting position on the continent. By virtually every measure it is the most powerful country on the continent, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. But that means that many Africans are wary of South Africa and want to push back against its pretensions to continental leadership. Or at least its pretensions to official positions of leadership. Culturally, economically, politically, and militarily the country is the de facto regional superpower.
Meanwhile Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe has denounced the AU for recognizing Libya’s National Transitional Council at a recent summit. At the Harare airport, Mugabe levied accusations toward his African colleagues for being: “‘fronts’ for Western powers whose ‘criminal’ NATO bombardment of Libya helped lead to the killing of Col. Moammar Gadhafi, a former Mugabe ally.” Of course he did.
Finally, if you’re going to be anywhere near the Research Triangle in North Carolina this weekend, I’d encourage you to swing by the South East Regional Seminar in African Studies (SERSAS) and the South East Africanist Network (SEAN) Conference. The main program will take place on Saturday at the University of North Carolina’s Fedex Global Education Center. The conference theme is “Border Crossings, Migrations, and Interventions,” but panels will deviate from those themes. I’m on the panel and would love to meet any readers who might be in the area.
Posted on 01 February 2012 by Tea Server
After the Nuclear Threat Initiative released its Nuclear Materials Security Index, the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis in New Delhi posted a rebuke of sorts by Dr. Ch. Viyyanna Sastry, a Research Fellow, and Rajiv Nayan, a Senior Research Associate, both at the IDSA. In it, Sastry and Nayan allege that the NTI index was released as part of a “hidden agenda” related to the Global threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI), that NTI’s decision not to include radiological materials was arbitrary, refers to its methodology as faulty, and contends that the index reflects a political and Western bias.

Okay. Fair enough. In the spirit of democracy, the IDSA and any other think tank or analyst is welcome to comment on, deconstruct or otherwise dissect the NTI’s work. However, I have a sneaking suspicion it actually comes down to this sentence in the IDSA piece: “It is surprising that the Report places India at the 28th spot in the first list with Vietnam, Iran, Pakistan, and North Korea below it.”
NTI took the time to respond to the IDSA piece, countering that it did indeed consider including radiological materials, but that “While a real threat, radiological sources vary widely in terms of type of materials, nature of application (used by a diverse set of actors and facilities for medical, industrial and research purposes), and the consequences and impact of a dirty bomb attack. As such, they require a substantially different set of security requirements. Because the dirty bomb concern is an analytically different problem, we chose to focus on how to prevent a nuclear terrorism attack using a catastrophic nuclear yield-producing device fueled by dangerous weapons-usable nuclear materials.”
As for the charge of political and Western bias, NTI countered that relied on an independent panel of experts which had “more representation from the non-Western and developing world (e.g., Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, and South Africa) than any other sector to ensure the Index reflected an international point of view. The panel provided extensive input into the framework before data was gathered to ensure its objectivity.”
A little anecdote: In the mid-1990s, a team from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission traveled to India under the helm of then-Chairman Ivan Selin. At the time, the technical team found the safety and physical conditions of the nuclear facilities they visited strongly lacking. Not wanting to offend their hosts, the team held their opinions. However, Dr. Selin was so alarmed at the condition of the plants that he strongly pressed the head of the technical team to speak candidly about the condition of the nuclear facilities. Needless to say, the Indian government was not pleased and vowed never again to allow the U.S. government to visit any of their nuclear facilities again. (Sidenote: The rift was not permanent and, after the 1998 test sanctions were lifted, the NRC again visited India and was able to gain access to the unsafeguarded nuclear plant at Chennai, as well as BARC. Yours truly was part of that visit.)
Now, the Indian government is by no means alone in showing technological pride in its innovations – after all, the Indians were cut off from Western nuclear cooperation after 1974 and, as a result, were forced to improvise, creating their own “INDU” reactor, a riff on the Canadian-Deuterium. or CANDU, Reactor given to them by Canada before the weapons test. However, as NTI rightly points out, the Index was created to instigate “a broad and deep conversation about the role of transparency in nuclear materials security…” NTI also adds that “…India and other states can take steps to make public its security regulations (absent sensitive information) and invite meaningful peer reviews.” I would add here that, of the Member States of the IAEA with nuclear power programs, one notable country has never requested a safety review of its facilities. Guess which one?
Posted on 29 January 2012 by Tea Server
There is a certain generation of Pakistani cricket fans — provisionally, we can say those born between 1975 and 1985 — that have grown up with a very particular worldview when it comes to cricketing miracles. In short, they believe that they are not miracles at all, mainly because they happened too often, and in ways that were too predictable, to be truly providential.
These predictable, orderly miracles usually go something like this: Pakistan hem and haw for three or four days, dropping catches, playing stupid shots, bowling wides, getting wickets off no-balls, and so on. The opposition, usually a good but not great team such as early 90s New Zealand or mid 1990s England, have done the hard work, and are poised to finish off a game with one or two sessions of good, solid play. And then they get blown away.
I choose that metaphor very carefully. Watching Wasim and Waqar and Saqlain and Mushie and Shoaib in their heyday was a little like watching Omar Little in his element — it was fun, but it was also very violent. There was something comically brutal about the way they went about their business. Collapses against that Pakistan team were gory murder scenes: the stumps splayed, batsmen hopping, fielders rendered unnecessary.
Yesterday was something very different. It was a choke, a suffocation. Pakistan essentially shut England in an airtight room, closed the windows and doors, threw the keys away, and waited. I’ve never really seen anything like it.
Forget the 10 wickets for a second. Just think about the drip-drip-drip of those first fourteen overs — where we got zero wickets but conceded only 18 runs. Those fourteen overs set the stage for everything that came after. It was marked by brilliant bowling and even more brilliant captaincy. Misbah’s field placings were so intelligent — he simultaneously had attacking fielders, single-saving fielders, and boundary-saving fielders. You had to look twice to make sure we hadn’t cheated by sneaking on three extra guys on the ground. One common refrain from the commentators was that England were going nowhere. But that’s because Misbah left them nowhere to go. This was Stephen Fleming and Mark Taylor level captaincy, maybe better.
And once one fell, you just got the feeling — apologies for channeling Ravi Shastri — that one would lead to two and more. England’s rejigging of the batting order meant that once Cook got out, their next four wickets were the cheapest ones until you got to the end: Strauss, Bell, Pietersen, and Morgan are all either out of form, not particularly good against spin, or not particularly good in general.It gave us the opening we needed.
I didn’t think 145 would be enough though, certainly at the beginning of the innings. It’s such a low total that you just need one half partnership, say 50 or 60, and the game’s over. One wayward spell, one dropped catch, one silly decision, and it was done. But somehow, some way, England never managed it.
But talking about what happened is less important than talking about what it meant. There’s been enough written about our trials and tribulations over the last few years, both on and off the cricket field, so I won’t rehash all of that right now. Instead, I want to make a slightly different but related point.
When people use cliches like “cricket means a lot to Pakistan and Pakistanis” they obscure as much as they reveal. We know that cricket matters but how does cricket matter? It’s very difficult to explain to outsiders. The way I think about is this: very few of us actually know international cricketers personally, but we all act like we do. I know that sounds strange, but hear me out.
The point is that by consuming so much information about cricketers, their exploits, and their stories through magazine profiles, Cricinfo Statsguru, fan forums, rumors, Youtube videos of them dancing, and everything else available publicly (and some things that are not), Pakistanis feel like they have a pretty good sense of who their cricketing representatives are. We start forming a picture of their personalities and their background, and start pigeonholing them into our own social fabric. For example, when I see a bunch of londas on motorbikes on Seaview, I think “there goes Shoaib Akhtar!” When I hear stories about some sifarshi getting ahead in his company, I think “Ah, an Imran Farhat then.” And so on.
So yesterday, when I saw the entire team jumping in each other’s arms and hugging each other and grinning their impish grins, it made me so, so happy.
It was such a powerful experience. I could see what it meant to them because I had internalized the pain they felt over the last couple of years. Their struggles had become our struggles because, for better or worse, that’s how Pakistanis live.
It really was an experience I’ll never forget. Combined with the delirium that comes from being awake at an absurd hour, I got really emotional. I got into bed at 7:30 a.m., but not before shaking the W awake, and telling her that we won a game we had no business competing in (she was not amused or appreciative, but whatever, I needed to tell her for my sake if not hers).
I was clearly not alone. Facebook and Twitter, as they are wont to do at times such as these, blew up. Evidently all the main channels back home led their bulletins with the match. I am sure we have played better cricket in my lifetime, but this may be, alongside Melbourne in 1992 and Lords in 2009, our most meaningful win in a long, long time.
I think it’s important that we just cherish this win, revel in it, and remember it. I hope we don’t start thinking of this as a jumping off point for something grander, because, let’s be honest, that’s not how things work around here. Things are just as likely to go horribly pear-shaped from here as anything else: maybe a power struggle ensues when Whatmore takes over; maybe Mohsin Khan doesn’t go quietly into the sunset; maybe a couple of senior players get jealous of all the Misbah adulation in the media; maybe we go to Australia, South Africa or England and discover the truth that other than Younis and Azhar, none of our batters are good enough for those pitches. It’s better to not worry about the future, enjoy the present, and thank those who gave it to us: #TeamMisbah.
Posted on 29 January 2012 by Tea Server
By The Sydney Morning Hearld
Left-arm spinner Abdul Rehman took a career best 6-25 to help Pakistan humble England by 72 runs in the second Test in Abu Dhabi, to giving Pakistan unassailable 2-0 lead in the three-match series.
The 31-year-old twice took two wickets in successive overs to dent England’s chase after Andrew Strauss’s side was set a 145-run target on a weary fourth-day Abu Dhabi Stadium pitch.
England was all out for 72 – its lowest total against Pakistan in all Tests.
Rehman’s effort overshadowed Monty Panesar’s 6-62, in his first Test for England in 30 months, which finished Pakistan’s second innings at 214 in the morning.
This is England’s first series defeat after being unbeaten in its previous nine since a loss to the West Indies in early 2009 – a sequence which saw it rise to world No.1 in the Test rankings in August.
Pakistan won the first Test in Dubai by 10 wickets. The third Test will also be played in Dubai, from Friday.
Skipper Misbah-ul Haq said Pakistan wanted to make a match out of it after setting a tricky target.
“We knew that it would be difficult so we wanted to make a match out of it,” said Misbah, who has now won eight Tests with one defeat since taking over the captaincy in October 2010.
“Our bowlers, led by Rehman, responded well and this is a great win.” Strauss showed his disappointment at England’s woeful effort.
“It’s pretty disappointing,” said Strauss, whose side last lost two Tests in a row against South Africa in July 2008. “We must acknowledge how well Pakistan bowled and they thoroughly deserved the series win.”
Rehman was ably assisted by off-spinners Saeed Ajmal (3-22) and Mohammad Hafeez (1-11) in a match in which spinners dominated from the first day.
England lost its top four batsmen in the space of just 37 balls after an extra cautious start on a difficult pitch. Strauss top scored with 32 before he became one of Rehman’s victims during his maiden five-wicket haul.
In the penultimate over before tea, Rehman trapped Kevin Pietersen (one) and two balls later bowled Eoin Morgan (duck) to raise hopes of an unlikely win for Pakistan.
Sensing it could only upset its rival through early wickets, Pakistan opened the bowling with Hafeez, who responded well by catching Alastair Cook (seven) off his own bowling after England had edged cautiously to 21 by the 15th over.
Ian Bell, promoted to No.3 after Jonathan Trott was unwell, was all at sea against master spinner Ajmal and his tentative push went through his legs to hit the stumps. He made only three.
Pietersen, who has been woefully out of form with just 16 runs in the series, managed one before Rehman trapped him and in the same over had the equally out-of-form Morgan bowled to dent England’s hopes of a victory. Rehman then accounted for Trott (one) and Stuart Broad (duck) in the same over to leave England 7-68.
Ajmal dismissed Graeme Swann (duck) and Matt Prior (18) to reach 100 Test wickets in his 19th match, before James Anderson was caught off Rehman to give Pakistan a sensational win.
Earlier, Pakistan lost its last six wickets for 89 runs after resuming at 4-125, with all hopes pinned on Azhar Ali and Asad Shafiq. Panesar took three of those wickets to finish with his eighth five-wicket haul in Tests. Azhar Ali (68) and Asad Shafiq (43) added 88 for the fifth wicket before Panesar struck.
Filed under: cricket, England, Pakistan, Pakistan Cricket Tagged: Abu Dhabi, Bangladesh, cricket, Dubai, England, England Cricket, Misbah-ul-Haq, Pakistan Cricket, Saeed Ajmal, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe
Posted on 29 January 2012 by Tea Server
As policymakers, international affairs experts and enthusiasts, we talk a lot here about Africa. But now, those on the African continent are increasingly using tools to make themselves part of the #conversation.
This week, a first-of-its-kind study, “How Africa Tweets” was published by Portland Communications and Tweetminster which examined more than 11.5 million geo-located tweets during the last three months of 2011 and surveyed 500 of Africa’s “Top Tweeters.” For the first time, we have numbers to back up what many of us have assumed anecdotally (with a few surprises), such as:
How much is Twitter used in Africa?
The African country with this highest volume of tweets during the research period was South Africa (5,030,226 tweets) which was more than double the number of tweets of the second and third highest, Kenya (2,476,800 tweets) and Nigeria (1,646,212 tweets). To put these numbers in perspective, there are about 150,000,000 tweets sent every day worldwide.
Who’s using Twitter in Africa?
Those who tweet in Africa tend to be younger—60% between the ages of 21-29, compared with the worldwide average age of 39 years. The study made an interesting observation that Africa’s business and political leaders are largely absent from the continent’s twitterverse. This is a stark contrast to the US where virtually everyone in public political life communicates via Twitter, from political parties, local officials, presidents and presidential candidates (except for Ron Paul.)
Even terrorist networks are taking advantage of social media in Africa, check out my earlier post here.
How is Twitter being used by Africans?
57% of tweets were sent by mobile phones, which is only slightly higher than the 55% worldwide while only 37% of those in the US primarily tweet by mobile phone. (The explosion in mobile penetration in Africa made social media tools much more accessible.) More than 70% of Africans surveyed use Twitter as a source for national and international news. Not surprisingly, nearly 95% of those who use Twitter also use Facebook.
What does this mean?
First, it means that an increasing number of Africans are being exposed to news and information on subjects and from sources they may not have had access to previously. Secondly, we in the US now have a direct means of communication with those in Africa to share ideas, policies and to advocate for peace, change and reform. Thirdly, and I find this really interesting, Africans can talk BACK and share their ideas, concerns and issues. Social Media is a great “equalizer” because it provides a platform to reach millions and millions to those who might not otherwise have the means to communicate on a large scale. Fourthly, and this is what I found MOST interesting, the study revealed that 60% of those on Twitter in Africa “mainly follow African Tweeters.” This means that Africans are not just using new tools to reach “outside”, but they are establishing and strengthening the channels of communications amongst themselves. Now, they can follow world events with commentary from other Africans and gain a perspective that has been virtually absent. Also, strengthening these African-African ties will allow activists across nations to mobilize and coordinate in unprecedented ways.
The study also found that use of Twitter still pales in comparison with the US and other regions of the world. Twitter users in the Middle East and North Africa combined only make up about 5% of the Twitterverse. This disparity is not solely due to economics or access to technology. As the study points out, there are significant security and privacy barriers (particularly for the use of social media tools which incorporate geo-location services.) And how does Twitter’s policy shift this week to allow tweets and accounts to be selectively blocked, depending on the country of access weigh on these trends? Given the clear role that social media played in the Arab Spring, is this a step backwards?
You can download the complete study findings here.
Posted on 24 January 2012 by Tea Server
The Economist had a piece on South Africa in the latest issue that unintentionally contradicted itself. I usually try not to let others do my work for me, but these two paragraphs warrant regurgitating in full:
The ANC has marked up some notable achievements. It enshrined civil and social rights in the constitution. It abolished the death penalty. It has built more than 3m free or subsidised houses, and has brought clean water, sanitation and electricity to millions more. Every child now has a right to at least 12 years of education. More than 15m people, almost a third of the population, get some form of welfare. Severe malnutrition among children under five has been almost eradicated. Some 6m pupils get free school meals. Having at last accepted the link between HIV and AIDS, the ANC now has a grip on the epidemic, one of the world’s worst. Crime is coming down; the murder rate has fallen by half from its peak in 1994. The ANC has set up anti-corruption agencies in a proclaimed effort to bring corrupt people to book.
But for most South Africans, the stench of graft, patronage and greed surrounding the ruling party itself is now too strong. The romance, solidarity and heroism of the days of struggle have gone. In the popular mind, ANC people, from the president down, seem keener on power, status and ostentatious wealth than on improving the lot of the poor. Always a broad church, the ANC is riven with factionalism and in-fighting. Lip service is paid to the old ideals, but the party seems increasingly rudderless. It has lost its way.
It seems that the first of these paragraphs is hard to dismiss and the second does not hold up on the evidence. No one I know of in South Africa supports graft, patronage, or greed. But how can one possibly assert that the stench of those things “surrounding the party is now too strong” when the ANC will win the next national elections overwhelmingly and with a 60%+ tally? This is a peculiar and arithmetically-challenged definition of “most.” In fact, the first paragraph is empirically right and the second is empirically wrong.
Posted on 20 January 2012 by Tea Server

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Posted on 16 January 2012 by Tea Server
By Manzer Munir for Pakistanis for Peace
Today is MLK Day in the United States where it is a federal holiday commemorating the life and legacy of the Rev Dr Martin Luther King Jr, who would have been 83 years old on January 15. MLK was a great believer in the teachings of non-violence if Mohandas K Gandhi, the leader of India’s independence movement from Britain. King saw that Gandhi’s peaceful civil disobedience and non-violent methods of protest were very effective in bringing down the British Empire in India and as a result Pakistan and the rest of the Indian Subcontinent after some 300 years of direct and indirect rule. Gandhi had believed that people could resist immoral government action by simply refusing to cooperate. Gandhi adopted many peaceful resistance techniques in developing his concept of Satyagraha, which was a philosophy and practice of passive nonviolent resistance.
Gandhi had earlier used this resistance technique in his struggles for freedom and equality for blacks and Indians in South Africa where both minorities were subjected to second and third class citizenry. His methods and refusal to bow down to the injustices that Indians faced in colonial South Africa inspired Nelson Mandela several years later to start his own peaceful struggle that eventually led to the end of Apartheid in South Africa in 1990.
While at Morehouse College, King learned about Gandhi and became very excited about his ideas. He wanted to further educate himself and read many books on Gandhi and his life and beliefs. In his book, Stride Toward Freedom, King states that “Gandhi was probably the first person in history to lift the love ethic of Jesus above mere interaction between individuals to a powerful and effective social force on a large scale. He further writes in his book that “It was in this Gandhian emphasis on love and nonviolence that I discovered the method for social reform that I had been seeking. I came to feel that this was the only morally and practically sound method open to oppressed people in their struggle for freedom.”
King felt that he had finally found a way to where oppressed people could successfully unlock social protest through Jesus’ teachings of love. In fact Gandhi himself had said “What does Jesus mean to me? To me, he was one of the greatest teachers humanity has ever had.” He also once mentioned Jesus as the “most active resister known perhaps to history. His was non-violence par excellence” Therefore to the Christian minister living in the pre-civil rights era in the South in America, Gandhi appeared to King as a follower of Christ, someone who preached peace and love even at the expense of suffering. Martin Luther King once said of Gandhi “It is ironic yet inescapably true that the greatest Christian of the modern world was a man who never embraced Christianity.”
In 1959, King visited India and became fully convinced that Satyagraha could be effectively applied to the struggle by blacks in the United States for racial integration. He came back to the United States where he continued the struggle for freedom and equality for all Americans. Like Gandhi, King also talked about suffering as a path to self purification and spiritual growth. He not only experienced this suffering by being jailed, beaten and harassed by the authorities of the day, but he eventually ended up paying for this cause for freedom for all with his life.
Today there is a black man that sits in the White House, minorities are on the Supreme Court bench, and Black heads of Fortune 500 companies who have reached the proverbial mountaintop in ever possible endeavor. Yet there is little doubt that despite how far we have come as a nation, we still have a way to go to achieve equality for minorities and women. Without Dr King’s struggle, leadership and personal sacrifice, the United States, and indeed the world, would be in far worse shape.
Mohandas K Gandhi and Martin Luther King Jr were arguably two of the greatest men of the last century. Both men believed that “injustice anywhere was a threat to justice everywhere.” They both led their people and millions of others out of slavery and servitude against seemingly insurmountable odds to freedom and salvation. On what would have been his 83rd birthday, let us recognize that despite an assassin’s bullet and in the greatest democracy in the history of the world, the spirit and dream of a King still lives on.
Filed under: Democracy, Desi, Freedoms, Gandhi, India, Pakistanis for Peace, United States Tagged: Civil Rights, Gandhi, India, Manzer Munir, Martin Luther King Jr, MLK, MLK Day, Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi, Pakistan, Pakistanis for Peace, USA
Posted on 13 January 2012 by Tea Server
Last year was the Year of the Rabbit for the Chinese – promising among other things good luck! However, China which came out of the global financial crisis almost unscathed (or at least better off than most major world economies) hit one too many ‘speed-bumps’ in 2011. Last year’s inflation is threatening a significant slow-down of the Chinese economy, and the housing market is in such collapse that it could lead to real civil unrest.
Overall, in 2011 China assumed a more assertive role on the global stage. China’s new posture was reflected in an aggressive trade agenda, a push for a larger role in international institutions, and provocative moves in the South and East China Seas. These actions were both a reflection and a consequence of China’s growing economic prominence and resource needs, as well as China’s view that the United States is in decline while China is ascendant.
China continued the backsliding from market reforms in favor of an increased role of the state in the economy. China continues to subsidize its state-owned enterprises to the detriment of both private Chinese firms and international competitors. Despite promises by President Hu Jintao and other Chinese officials to ease a policy of discriminating against foreign companies in government procurement decisions; however, real change remains elusive, particularly among the provincial and local governments.
Currency Liberalization
China continued its aggressive capital controls during 2011, a policy which pegs the renminbi (RMB) to the dollar, restricts the flow of foreign capital in the domestic market, and investing foreign reserves in U.S. Treasury bonds.
By the end of 2011, China’s foreign exchange reserves are projected to be over $3.2 trillion, up nearly one trillion from $2.4 trillion back in January of 2010. China’s foreign exchange reserves are now roughly three times greater than that of Japan, which has the second-highest foreign exchange reserves in the world. Roughly two-thirds of China’s foreign exchange reserves are generally thought to be denominated in U.S. dollars, although the exact makeup of the reserves is unknown, because the Chinese government considers it to be a state secret.
Somewhat better known is the volume of China’s foreign exchange reserves that are made up of U.S. Treasury securities. As of July 2011, the official estimate by the U.S. Treasury Department
stood at $1.2 trillion, up slightly from the same period one year before. The real amount is considerably higher, since the $1.2 trillion does not take into account any purchases made on the secondary market nor does it factor in purchases made by intermediaries or made through tax havens, such as the Cayman Islands.
On the positive side, the Chinese government allowed the RMB to rise by roughly 6% in nominal terms over the last year, from 6.641 RMB per dollar at the beginning of the year, to 6.30 RMB per dollar by the end of December 2011. This is the second-fastest rate of appreciation since the Chinese government eliminated its hard peg to the dollar in 2005.
The 12th Five-Year-Plan
In March 2011, China ratified its 12th Five-Year Plan (2011– 2015), a government-directed industrial policy that focuses on the development and expansion of seven ‘‘strategic emerging industries.’’ The central and local governments will likely continue to combine targeted investment with preferential tax and procurement policies to ensure that Chinese firms emerge as global leaders, or ‘‘national champions,’’ in these industries within the next five years.
One of the main objectives of the 12th Five-Year Plan is to redirect China’s economy to one more focused on domestic consumption and less on exports and investment. The plan assumes that China’s growth would therefore be more balanced and sustainable. The plan also emphasizes higher value-added production and increased government support for domestic high-tech industries.
Increasing household consumption, a major goal of the 12th Five-Year Plan, and the subsequent emergence of a more assertive consumer class, may be in direct contradiction to the Chinese government’s policy of keeping economic power firmly in the hands of the state and may compromise lending to many vested interests, including SOEs and the export sector.
Analysts and foreign business leaders fear that the emphasis on industrial upgrading will lead to the introduction of new government subsidies, which in turn will disadvantage foreign competitors.
In particular, the government’s new growth model includes such goals as:
The most important short-term priority for the government is to address increases in food price, which Beijing intends to do through price controls. In order to control inflation, the government intends to keep using the tools and methods that it has been employing thus far: manage liquidity, use price controls, curb real-estate speculation, and “adjust and improve” property tax policies. Furthermore, the budget for this year shows a 35% increase in spending on low-income housing.
(For more, read: China’s 12th Five-Year-Plan – Will It Help With the Global Trade Imbalance?)
Inflation
While China has taken an externally assertive posture, it faces many internal challenges. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) relies on economic growth, combined with strict authoritarian rule, to maintain control over a factious and geographically vast nation. Sharp increases in consumer prices, a pivotal factor in the early days of the student protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989, are once again a problem for the Chinese economy.
Inflation is the Achilles heal of the CCP; inflation is what precipitated the Tiananmen Square demonstrations back in 1989, is what fueled the Arab youth discontent for the status quo, and is what is caused by China’s undervalued currency and current account restrictions. What was but a prospect of inflation in 2010, turned to a serious threat to the longevity of the Chinese economy in 2011, forcing the government to impose price controls to a number of goods. The rise in property values during the year, led to fears of a bubble market, and a significant drop of values by the end of 2011. In the middle of the year, inflation was as high as 6.5%; the second highest level in the past 10 years.
Property Bubble
Following a decade-long boom and nearly two years of attempts by the central government to cool the overheated sector, the housing market in China appears to have turned. In order to cool the overheating residential-property market, the central government has restricted purchases of multiple homes, demanded larger down-payments and curtailed opportunities for speculators to “flip”, or quickly sell on, properties. It has curbed developers’ access to bank lending and cut off credit from new trust companies. It is also encouraging the use of property taxes like those introduced in Shanghai and Chongqing last year.
Taken together, these measures have certainly slowed down the market. Price growth has been slowing since early 2010. Analysts suggest that prices fell during December 2011 in 60 of the 100 cities it monitors. Land prices are falling fast, too.
In 2010, property construction accounted for 13% of Chinas GDP, and for more than 25% of all investment in what is the most investment-dependent economy of the world. Property directly accounts for 40% of Chinese steel use; the country itself produces more steel than the next 10 producing countries combined, making it by far the most important buyer of inputs such as iron ore. Construction in China is also important for a host of other industries, from copper, cement and coal to power generation equipment. Most analysts agree that the sector matters to an extraordinary degree for the overall Chinese growth, for commodity demand, household expenditures, external trade and underlying heavy industrial profitability.
According to government figures, which most analysts believe understate the reality, average housing prices more than doubled in the last four years nationwide, while in Beijing and some other regions the price increase was more like 150%. Data are incomplete but analysts say the price of an average apartment in a Chinese city is now about 8-10 times the average annual income nationwide; in cities like Beijing and Shanghai the ratio is closer to 30 times. Now, by some estimates, property prices might fall by as much as 25% in the near future, and by another similar amount in the following two to three years.
However, its impost to remember that before 1998 China did not have a residential real estate market to speak of. In urban areas, all housing was built and allocated by the state through the ubiquitous “work unit”. In the countryside, peasant farmers built their own homes on land allotted to them by the state or the collective.
The real estate market that now plays such an important part in China’s overall economy was born when the Communist party decided in the late 1990s to begin transferring ownership of the vast majority of housing to individuals. It is easy to forget that the market is just over a decade old and, apart from a brief dip in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis when transactions dried up, most Chinese have only seen prices double every couple of years and never seen them fall. Besides, China is a country where speculative bubbles have been a constant phenomenon since market-based reforms picked up pace in the 1980s.
(For more, read: China Property – A lofty ceiling reached)
WTO – 10 Year Anniversary
In December of 2011, China celebrated 10 years since its entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO). Last year also marks the end of China’s probationary period, under the terms of its Accession Agreement to the WTO. The probationary period required China to lower its tariffs to levels below those of many other developing countries. But compared with most industrialized countries, China was allowed to impose considerably higher tariffs (on average around 25%, while U.S. tariffs are mostly under 5%) — tariffs China has retained even as its economy has subsequently grown to No. 2 in the world.
Practices such as forced technology transfer and the creation of joint venture companies as a condition to obtaining access to the Chinese market; the adoption of unique, Chinese-specific standards for high-tech equipment; and extensive intellectual property rights violations are among the faulty policies designed to help China achieve its economic and development goal, while blatantly violating the spirit and often the letter of WTO law.
In the ten years since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), China has maintained a steep growth trajectory, outpacing both Germany and Japan to become the second largest economy in the world. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) has grown from $1.32 trillion in 2001 to a projected $5.87 trillion in 2011 (an increase of more than 400%). Concurrently, China has lifted 400 million of its citizens out of poverty and has experienced the largest rural-to-urban migration in history.
However, 2011 has been a particularly confrontation year in terms of trade disputes with the U.S., China’s most important trade partner. The U.S. initiated consultations with the Chinese government on a number of cases (chicken products, subsidies, and internet restrictions), and China followed suite in the case of imports of U.S. cars. Currently, three previous WTO cases involving U.S.-China trade are both open and active. The Raw Materials case, which resulted in a decision favorable to the United States, is under appeal as of August 31, 2011. The Flat-rolled Electrical Steel case and the Electronic Payments case have both advanced to formal dispute settlement, though no decision has been reached.
(For more, read: Sino-American Trade Relations – A heated exchange)
Soft Power – Climate Change
In December 2011, the World Climate Change Summit in Durban, South Africa, was considered a (at least very promising) success, thanks in part to the new found commitment of China to the cause. More specifically, for the first time since the Kyoto agreement back in 1997, large emerging economic powers such as China, India and Brazil agreed to legal constraints on their emissions (unlike their previous resistance in 2007 and 2009, which clearly doomed past climate change efforts).
In the past, a familiar stalling point has been the refusal by emerging powerhouses such as China to agree to legal targets. That has prompted others – most notably the US – to insist that they could not sign up to such pledges. China, which in 2007 overtook the US to become the globe’s largest emitter, was one of the largest obstacles. However, China is still classed as a developing country under UN climate conventions and therefore not subject to legally binding constraints.
Having been blamed for wrecking the 2009 Copenhagen talks, Beijing went to Durban eager to promote its green credentials. In a series of side events, its delegates boasted of China’s rising dominance of renewable energy markets and a five-year plan that for the first time includes plans for emissions trading and carbon intensity reduction targets.
There is still a lot of follow-up needed to make these new commitments real, but it seems that climate change (and the profitable side of this issue: development and marketing of green energy sources) is one area where China is willing to ‘play ball’ with the rest of the world and stretch its ‘soft power’ muscles.
(For more, read: Climate Change – The great regrouping)
Taiwan Strait
Despite the continuing improvement in economic and diplomatic relations across the Taiwan Strait, China deploys some 1,200 short-range ballistic missiles against the island. In 2011 we saw the sale by the U.S. to Taiwan of a new $5.8 billion package of upgrades to its aging fleet of F–16 fighter jets. In response to that, China indicated that it might suspend a series of military-to-military engagements.
However, as much as military build-up and confrontation across the Taiwan Strait will always define the China-Taiwan relationship, the upcoming Taiwanese Presidential election overshadowed developments at the end of last year. China’s strategic planners are very alarmed by the uncertainty over the outcome of this month’s presidential election in Taiwan.
President Ma Ying-jeou, the Beijing government’s preferred candidate who has steered a path of warmer ties and direct economic links with the mainland, is suddenly in a tough race for reelection. Ma’s chief opponent is Tsai Ing-wen, chairwoman of the Democratic Progressive Party, which officially backs the independence of Taiwan. Tsai has raised the Beijing government’s ire for her refusal to publicly support an informal, unwritten, 20-year-old agreement between the two sides stipulating that there is just “one China.”
For months, the election was expected to hand an easy reelection victory to Ma, from the Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party, after he steered the island through the worst of the global recession and secured a new trade deal with China. But the race became more unpredictable with the entry of a third candidate, James Soong, a former Nationalist Party stalwart who founded the People First Party.
For China, a victory by the DPP will be considered a setback to cross-strait relations, and could lead to an military escalation as China is preparing for its own leadership transition.
China in South-East Asia
To the consternation of its neighbors, China asserts its expansive territorial claims in the South and East China Seas. China is increasingly capable of pursuing its own interests at the expense of regional, perhaps even global, stability. David Gordon of the Eurasia Group recently argued that China has overplayed its hand in Asia, and its rapid growth and aggressive posturing (both economic and military) “is inadvertently driving Asian states to build closer economic and strategic ties with the U.S. and each other.”
Over the past 18 months China has taken a very aggressive tone towards territorial disputes in the South China Sea and elsewhere. Mr. Gordon further argues that Beijing has miscalculated its ability to cater to nationalist feelings domestically without alarming its neighbors, and is now (inadvertently) driving Asian nations to build closer economic and strategic ties with the U.S. and each other.
The Chinese leadership is very concerned with developments with the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a U.S. led effort for freer trade among Pacific economies which the Chinese press often casts it as an aggressive U.S.-led ploy to squeeze China out of South East Asia. During the fall, the U.S. formally accede to the East Asia Summit (the ASEAN+3 – just like China did back in 2005), a move that the other SE Asian nations welcome, as they hope that the U.S. could provide a counterweight to China in the region.
Last but not Least – Domestic Unrest
Every year, China experiences some kind of public unrest, be it because of food product contamination that was not handled properly by the authorities, or some natural disaster that was not remedies properly afterword’s, or some transportation accident that could have been averted. Last year was no different. However, what happened during the fall in a couple of rural places could have greater ramifications for this year.
In the Southern village of Wukan, protests began on 21–23 September 2011 after officials sold land to real estate developers without properly compensating the villagers. Several hundred to several thousand people protested in front of and then attacked a Chinese Communist Party building, a police station and an industrial park. Residents of Wukan had previously petitioned the national government in 2009 and 2010 over the land disputes.
In an apparent attempt to ease tensions, authorities allowed villagers to select 13 representatives to engage in negotiations. Security agents abducted five of the representatives and took them into custody in early December. The protests strengthened after one of the village representatives, Xue Jinbo, died in police custody in suspicious circumstances. The villagers forced all Communist Party officials and police to flee the village, which came back with reinforcements and laid siege to the village, preventing food and goods from entering the village.
Eventually, the village representatives and provincial officials reached a peaceful agreement, satisfying the villager’s immediate requests.
During December, protests in the town of Haimen, of Guangdong province, which drew thousands of participants were ignited over plans to expand a coal-fired power plant in the town—a plan that residents opposed, arguing that existing coal-fired plants had caused environmental and health damage. Demonstrations began on 20 December when thousands of residents barricaded a freeway and surrounded government offices in an attempt to block the project.
Riot police fired tear gas into the crowd and beat protesters with riot sticks. Tensions cooled by 23 December, after Communist Party officials declared that the plant expansion plans would be temporarily suspended, and authorities agreed to release detained protesters. Although the protests in Haimen were unrelated to demonstrations in nearby Wukan, Haimen residents told Reuters that they had followed developments in Wukan closely, regarding it as a good model of how citizens might negotiate with authorities.
This is not the beginning of China’s ‘Arab Spring’ moment. China is a very large and very diverse country. But when the people at the bottom of the ‘food chain’ can justify physical confrontation with the authority as the only viable way of ‘negotiating’ with the government, then everyone should be paying very close attention!
I wonder, what will the year of the Dragon bring… more assertiveness by local people, or more resolve by the government in Beijing?
Posted on 09 January 2012 by Tea Server