The Kolskaya oil rig.

The Russian oil rig Kolskaya sunk 200 miles off the east coast of Sakhalin late Saturday night in stormy weather with 67 crewmembers were on board. So far, four people have been found dead and 14 people rescued, while 49 people still remain lost. The Kolskaya sunk in twenty minutes in fifteen-foot, 32 degree seas. In Moscow, President Dmitry Medvedev called for all necessary help to be directed towards the rescue efforts. The Neftegaz-55, which had been towing the Kolskaya to the port of Kholmsk, in western Sakhalin, and the icebreaker Magadan were at the scene assisting with the rescue efforts. The SMIT Sakhalin (an icebreaker of class 1A Super) and the Atlas rescue ship were on their way to the site of the sinking, too. Two helicopters searched for people on Sunday, but had to return to Sakhalin until Monday morning due to nightfall and continuing adverse weather conditions.

This graphic from RIA Novosti shows the location of the sinking, some statistics about the rescue efforts, and a diagram of the rig.

33 of the crewmembers hailed from Murmansk. Counselors from the city, in Russia’s western Arctic, have flown to Sakhalin to assist those affected by the sinking. The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM) has established a hotline for people to call for information regarding the disaster or for psychological counseling. This time, the authorities seem to be enacting a swifter response than in the past, when it clumsily and belatedly responded to disasters such as the sinking of the icebreaker Kursk in 2000.

The Kolskaya was a jack-up rig that stood on three legs to drill for oil. Built in Finland, the rig was 26 years old. The Arktikmor Neftegaz Razvedka (AMNGR) company owned the rig, which was performing exploration work for Gazflot, a subsidiary of Gazprom. A spokesperson for AMNGR stated, “There is no ecological danger. The vessel was carrying the minimum amount of fuel as it was being tugged by two craft.” The head of EMERCOM Sakhalin, Taimuraz Kasaev, echoed this statement, saying, “Stocks of fuel on board PB” Kola were minimal. They are in sealed tanks, so there is no threat of a spill.”

The Sakhalin is a hotbed of offshore exploration activity, with Gazprom, ExxonMobil, and Shell all involved. While the sinking is a tragedy for those lost onboard, it could have been much worse for the environment. Incidents such as the sinking of this rig should prompt more oversight of offshore drilling activities, whether in Russia or anywhere else in the Arctic. The same goes for shipping, whether of oil or other cargo, as it was only days ago that the Korean cargo ship Oriental Angel ran aground in similar conditions off Chukotka, to the northeast of Sakhalin.

Russia’s maritime infrastructure could also use an upgrade. Near Antarctica, the Russian fishing ship Sparta has run into trouble, as its hull became damaged when it hit a submerged iceberg. The Korean icebreaker Araon, which is currently seven days away from the Sparta, in Christchurch, had been about to embark on an Antarctic research mission. However, it will now sail towards the trapped ship to try to rescue it – a reversal of the situation on the opposite end of the earth.

News Links

“Russian drilling rig sinks off Sakhalin, 49 missing,” Chicago Tribune

“Crew face long, cold wait for rescue,” New Zealand Herald

Iran is driving a hard bargain for granting access to the US stealth
drone RQ-170 it captured undamaged last week, as Russian and Chinese
military intelligence teams arriving in Tehran for a look at the secret
aircraft soon found.Moscow sources disclose that the price
set by Revolutionary Guards commander Gen. Ali Jaafari includes advanced
nuclear and missile technology, especially systems using solid fuel,
the last word on centrifuges for enriching uranium and the S-300PMU-1
air defense system, which Moscow has consistently refused to sell
Tehran.

This super-weapon is effective against stealth warplanes and cruise
missiles and therefore capable of seriously impairing any large-scale US
or Israeli air or missile attacks on Iran's nuclear sites.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu sent Russian-speaking Foreign
Minister Avigdor Lieberman to Moscow on Dec. 7 to try and dissuade Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin from letting Iran have the S-300 batteries as
payment for access to the captured US drone.

Sources in Washington report that before sending Lieberman to Moscow,
Netanyahu first checked with the White House at the highest levels.

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ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has changed its ambassadors in 14 important countries and three more ambassadors have been asked to return to headquarters after relinquishing their assignment so that they are also subsequently replaced with new envoys.

It is the biggest shuffle in the ambassadors/high commissioners in the recent history of the Foreign Office. Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani has approved the appointment of the new envoys and a formal announcement pertaining to the new postings and transfers would be made towards the end of the week. Pakistan will have new ambassadors in Russia, Holland, Brazil, Germany, Egypt, Algeria, Cuba, Nepal, Kenya, Yemen, Tunisia, Chile and Serbia. In the meanwhile, Prime Minister Gilani has sent for country’s envoys posted in about 15 significant capitals to discuss the new dimensions of the foreign policy in the wake of a row between Islamabad and Washington after acts of aggression by the United States against Paksistan.

Highly placed diplomatic sources told The News that Islamabad and some noteworthy capitals will witness hectic diplomatic activities in a couple of weeks against the backdrop of Pakistan’s decision to bring about a major shift in its ties with some important capitals. Pakistan’s ambassadors/high commissioners in China, Russia, France, United Kingdom, US, India, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Afghanistan, United Nations, Germany, Belgium, Japan, Indonesia and Iran are expected to attend the ambassadors conference being organized in a week. Some retired diplomats including former foreign secretaries and ambassadors/high commissioners are also being consulted in the process. The government is determined to ask the United States to evolve ‘fresh terms of engagements’ for future ties and the consultations are part of Pakistan’s preparations of the same before it enters into serious dialogue in the light of the findings of the parliament in this regard.

Referring to the reshuffle in the appointments of the ambassadors, the sources said that Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir will replace Pakistan’s high commissioner in India Shahid Malik who is completing his extended tenure in New Delhi in the second quarter of next year. The change could be brought in place before the expiry of the contractual period of the high commissioner. The prime minister has decided that no high commissioner/ambassador who is already serving for a contractual period would be given further extension. Pakistan will designate new ambassador in Moscow next month as incumbent Khalid Khattak is attaining the superannuation age in March/April same year. Additional Foreign Secretary for Europe and spokesman of the Foreign Office Abdul Basit Khan has been appointed ambassador in Germany to replace Shahid Kamal who is retiring next month. Manzoor ul Haq Director General Middle East desk (DGME) has been made ambassador for Egypt where Ms Seema Naqvi is returning after completion of her tenure. Arshad Saood Khosa has been appointed ambassador for Brazil vice Alamgir Khan Babar who has already returned to headquarters and taken over the slot of Additional Secretary for Americas, Afghanistan and Central Asia. Irfan Yusuf Shami Director General Disarmament (DG-Disarmnt-P) has been posted ambassador in Yemen in place of Khawja Alqama who has already returned to the country after completion of his contractual period. He is a renowned intellectual and educationist and he has been offered some important responsibility back in the country. Khalid Durrani Director General Policy Planning (DGPP) has been made ambassador for Algeria vice Muhammad Aslam who is reaching the age of retirement next month. Additional Secretary for Policy Planning (ASPP) Mushtaq Ali Shah has become ambassador for Tunisia to replace an artist Athar Mahmood who has also reached retirement age. Nasarullah Khan Director General Europe desk has been appointed ambassador for Nepal on a slot rendered vacant after relinquishing by Syed Ibrar Hussian who has become director general Afghanistan back in Islamabad. Ghulam Dastgir will become high commissioner in Kenya as Masroor Ahmad Junejo has returned to headquarters and he has been appointed Additional Foreign Secretary for Middle East (ASME) here. Pakistan’s ambassador in Netherland Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhary, ambassador in Chile Burhanul Islam and envoy in Serbia Nawaz Chaudhary will be relinquishing their respective assignment next month to come back to Islamabad. Nawaz Chaudhry will be retiring next month and new ambassadors for the three capitals would be announced accordingly. They have been communicated by the headquarters to leave their assigned capitals by mid January, the sources said.

Source: The News

Source: Google Images

Events of this past November revealed more cracks in U.S. -Russia relations that seemed propitious just several months ago. To start with, on November 22, the U.S. announced the decision to cease its obligations under The Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE), referring to information sharing and mutual inspections with Russia. The decision came as a delayed countermeasure to Russia’s unilateral suspension of its own obligations under the same Treaty in 2007.

Just a day later following the U.S. announcement, Russian President Medvedev responded with its own “if-then” stipulation when mentioning that Russia could possibly opt out from the START Treaty, if the United States continues its ambitious ballistic missile plan in Europe. Moscow has repeatedly expressed its discontent with the development of the missile defense project in Europe, accusing the West of excluding Russia from participating in the decision – making process. This is especially sensitive since Moscow perceives the radar installations in Poland, Romania and Turkey as a direct threat to its nuclear deterrence capabilities.

Finally, few days after a Pakistani decision to close supply route for U.S. troops, the Russian Envoy to NATO threatened to suspend Northern Distribution Network (NDN) that serves as a critical component to U.S. operations in Afghanistan as it allows the transportation of almost fifty percent of all non-lethal goods to U.S. troops. Consequently, a shut down of the alternative route could seriously undermine U.S. military capacity and put U.S. troops in a vulnerable position. By pointing out at the vital role Russia plays in U.S. military engagement in Afghanistan, Moscow shows that it is entitled to have an equal say in security matters.

All of the above-mentioned events carry an important message that although an attempt to improve the relations between Russia and the United States might have had a good start, as long as their positions on the pre-existing matters are not reconciled, a meaningful cooperation is hardly possible. That said, the split over Georgia, Moldova, and the ballistic missile defense in Europe continues to persist and define Russian and U.S. policies towards each other, much as any attempt to address them unilaterally only exacerbates the situation.

Let’s go back to the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty. It was signed on November 19, 1990 establishing equal limitation on armed forces that NATO and Warsaw Pact member-countries could deploy between Atlantic Ocean and Ural Mountains. For several years it served as a guaranty of security and control over the overwhelming amount of Russian military weaponry.

Consequently, the lack of a similar security agreement, especially the one regarding nuclear weapons, relaxes limitations and allows the parties more room in their defense planning. All that leads to growing uncertainty, distrust and risk of escalation that would keep the parties uneasy and suspicious of each other actions. In the absence of an agreed structure or a system for minimizing perceived threats, old concerns will persist and grow as will the rhetoric that accompanies these types of ‘Tit-for-Tat’ actions.

By not renewing the CFE Treaty obligation, Russia demonstrated that it has not reconsidered its position in the neighborhood, neither has it overcome its disagreement with NATO’s eastward expansion. Russia chose to unilaterally suspend its participation in the Treaty in 2007, which allowed to keep its troops in Transdniestria and Abkhazia, breakaway Republics of Moldova and Georgia.

Finally, while the United States turns its attention to the Asia Pacific region, it seems that Russia is gradually slipping from U.S. foreign policy agenda. At the same time Russia looks for ways to emphasize its critical role for the success of the U.S. foreign policy goals and to establish a status of an equal partner on security matters.

It’s not surprising that Putin lost his 2/3 majority in parliament today. Many people have turned against him and his party for many reasons: his inability to improve living standards, deal with corruption and reform the military, police, health and education systems.

But perhaps most damning: his inability to get more than 50% of the vote despite controlling all the media, silencing the opposition, stuffing thousands of ballots, blackmailing scores of regional governors, and even detaining the head election monitor! Under similar conditions, his Communist predecessors never allowed themselves to win by anything less than 95%.

Decisive proof, if any more were needed, of his and United Russia’s total incompetence.
After all, this must have been Russia’s dirtiest parliamentary elections even by the country’s world-leading standards of virtual politics, and they still managed to screw it up.

*United Russia apparatchiks working in industry, schools and local bureaucracies DEMANDED THEIR SUBORDINATES SHOW THEM CAMERAPHONE PHOTOS OF THEIR BALLOTS AS PROOF THAT THEY VOTED “THE RIGHT WAY”. No joke! Who says Russia has no transparency??!

*Several regional governors threaten voters that their benefits would be cut and that industry would leave if they do not vote UR.

*A Gazeta.ru journalist infiltrated an organised ballot stuffing ring on the outskirts of Moscow
*Independent election monitoring group Golos (“Voice”, or “Vote”) found over 9000 different electoral violations and logged them onto an interactive online map.

* Shortly after that, Golos’s website is taken down by a cyberattack; Golos’s director Lilya Shibanova is detained at an airport and her laptop is confiscated.

Will the election become Putin’s Waterloo? Who knows? But one thing’s for sure: Russians can endure many things, but one thing we can’t take is incompetent authoritarianism.

Georgia

2011 was the year when former Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze put the finishing touches on her long campaign to discredit former Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze.

Nino Burjanadze (geotimes.ge)

Ms. Burjanadze began her re-branding effort from responsible, clear-headed opposition leader to uncompromising radical after forming her own political party in 2008. The disastrous Russo-Georgian War in the same year fueled her embrace of confrontational rhetoric and what appeared to be acquiescence to occasional violent tactics by her allies at demonstrations.

The arrest of a number of her inner circle on weapons charges in 2009, which Burjanadze referred to as a government “campaign of terror” against her was a blow to her image, as were her visits to Moscow last year in attempt to look statesmanlike.

2011 was probably the final chapter for Burjanadze in her role as opposition leader. Beginning early this year, she called for another round in an endless series of demonstrations against President Saakashvili, whom she has begun to refer to as “a dictator” and a leader who is “terrorizing the people.”

Thus like Armenia (and to a lesser extent, Azerbaijan), Georgia experienced a number of demonstrations in the spring. But the character of the rallies in Georgia was of an altogether different nature, consisting of a hodgepodge of fringe political groups hankering for a fight, which is precisely what they got.

The tragedy at the tail end of the rallies was the random death of two men—a policeman and a bystander—on the evening of 26 May, when they were run down by someone in Burjanadze’s motorcade as it sped away, east on Rustavelli Avenue, at the conclusion of a violent demonstration.

The arrest and conviction of Burjandze’s husband Badri Bitsadze on charges stemming from the violent demonstrations that month probably closes the book on Nino’s political future. Badri, who went into hiding, was convicted in absentia, and his last reported whereabouts were Vienna, where he was spotted by journalists in September.

With Nino excluded as a major political actor, there are now two or three figures poised to lead any unified opposition that may eventually emerge. One is Levan Gachechiladze, who was trounced by President Saakashvili in the special presidential election in 2008. A more serious contender is former Georgian ambassador to the United Nations Irakli Alasania, although he too was easily brushed aside when he ran for mayor of Tbilsi in 2010.

That leaves us with Bidzina Ivanishvili, the “reclusive” (which seems to be the operative term for Ivanishvili these days) billionaire who in November announced his plans to enter politics.

Ivanishvili will be the man to watch in Georgia’s near-term future. Stripped of his (lapsed) Georgian citizenship by the authorities due to his dual Russian-French nationality, Ivanishvili has said that he intends to renounce his dual citizenship and appeal to the president. (That’s a mildly ironic tactic, since Ivanishvili is reported to have blamed Saakashvili for starting the 2008 war with Russia.)

Saakashvili’s allies have attacked Ivanishvili as a tool of Moscow, where he made his fortune, and the police have not at all coincidentally launched a money laundering investigation of the Cartu Bank, owned by Ivanishvili.

His new political movement, still in incubation, is called “Georgian Dream,” which he will use to spearhead his effort to wrest power from the ruling party in the 2012 parliamentary elections.

Ivanishvili’s platform is still a little unclear beyond the ritual denunciations of the president, of whom he said, “In my view, reality today is such that even his own mother would not vote for Saakashvili.”

His personal web site is here.

Armenia

The biggest story for Armenia was probably the rallies in February through April staged by the Armenian National Congress (HAK) and its leader, former president Levon Ter-Petrossian (often referred to in shorthand as “LTP”).

Levon Ter-Petrossian (photo: Onnik Krikorian)

The demonstrations were designed to force a number of concessions from the government, including the release of detainees held since Armenia’s 2008 civil unrest, the resignation of President Sargsyan, and early elections. The rhetoric borrowed, somewhat superficially, from the Arab Spring template, with LTP speaking of a “Mubarakization” process underway in Armenia.

The rallies never attracted more than 30,000 or so participants, although HAK claimed a turnout of 50,000 at one demonstration in early March.

As of early April, Ter-Petrossian had climbed down somewhat, telling supporters at a rally that he was now demanding merely that President Sargsyan free all “political prisoners,” agree to an inquiry into the 2008 political unrest, and guarantee access to Freedom Square in downtown Yerevan for further demonstrations.

By May, the government had released many HAK supporters who had languished in prison since the violence of 2008, and agreed to establishing the commission that Ter-Petrossian had demanded. While these were two key premises behind the rallies, it was clear then—and after the more recent demonstrations in October—that the president would not resign and that new elections were not in the offing.

To many observers, the rallies constituted a trial balloon for LTP’s efforts to retool himself and become a political force once again. I would tend to agree, and in my view this strategy has failed.

Ter-Petrossian has intimated recently that he hasn’t abandoned the cycle of demonstrations, but some observers believe that his day in the sun is over. Intriguingly, a Wikileaks cable released this year cast the former president in a rather unflattering light.

The cable, written in late 2008 and released this year, details a wide-ranging conversation in Yerevan between LTP and then-US ambassador Marie Yovanovitch, and reveals a sometimes exasperated Yovanovitch expressing her astonishment at charges Ter-Petrossian had leveled against the United States at a rally two weeks earlier:

“[The ambassador] took strong exception…to LTP’s
October 17 speech in which he had argued in the most
provocative terms the exact opposite of what he was now
saying to the Ambassador privately, and had called the
United States “doubly immoral” for allegedly taking unfair
advantage of Serzh Sargsian,s supposed political weakness
to push for a deal counter to Armenia’s national interests.”

Defending himself, Ter-Petrosian told the ambassador that his polarizing comments were meant only to placate his more radical cadres:

“…LTP assured the Ambassador that his rhetoric was meant only
to mollify the radical elements in his opposition movement — to
provide them with a viable explanation for his decision to suspend
protest activities.

“LTP said he “had no other way to get people off the streets
and back in their homes.”

But Yovanovitch wasn’t quite buying it:

“The Ambassador replied that the problem with such
rhetoric — even if it is meant to satisfy LTP’s constituents –
is that the U.S. has no way of knowing what LTP truly thinks, and
that painting the United States in an immoral light on resolving NK
is intellectually dishonest no matter the motive.”

The cable then summed up with a cold, hard look at Ter-Petrossian’s tactics:

“LTP saw support for public rallies dwindling with each passing month,
and was desperate to find a face-saving tactic. Empty-handed after
months of a stridently rejectionist strategy, LTP chose to cloak himself
in nationalism and concoct a conspiracy theory of great power
machinations to cover his political retreat.”

Ter-Petrossian isn’t exactly President Sargsyan’s biggest worry, because it looks like Robert Kocharian, Sargyan’s former ally, is maneuvering for a comeback. And Sargsyan is taking the threat seriously.

Robert Kocharian (mediamax.am)

The dominant theory explaining the recent sackings and resignations of key government personnel, including the mayor of Yerevan, is that the president is engaging in a pre-emptive move to weaken Kocharian’s power base. That may be true, but I’ll leave you with the waggish analysis of Kocharian and Sargsyan from the New Times party leader, who last month dismissed the notion that there is any substantive difference between the two men:

“They are Siamese twins,” he said.

The Obama Administration plans to complete an anti-ballistic missile
shield to protect European allies against Iran "whether Russia likes it
or not," the U.S. envoy to NATO said on Friday.

Moscow's objections to the project, which includes participation by
Romania, Poland, Turkey and Spain, "won't be the driving force in what
we do," Ivo Daalder, the ambassador, told reporters at a breakfast
session.

The U.S. estimate of the Iranian ballistic missile threat has gone up,
not down, over the two years since President Barack Obama opted for a
new, four-phased deployment to protect the United States and NATO
allies, Daalder said.

"It's accelerating," Daalder said of the U.S.-perceived threat of Iran's
ballistic missiles, "and becoming more severe than even we thought two
years ago."

"We're deploying all four phases, in order to deal with that threat,
whether Russia likes it or not," he added. At the same time, he urged
Moscow to cooperate in both to deal with Iran and to see for itself
that, as he put it, the system's capabilities pose its strategic
deterrent force no threat.

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