Recent wave of Arab spring and success of Justice and Development Party in Turkey have given many lessons to Islamic movements and political parties around the world.

These revolutions and political successes came as a result of patient and hard laboured struggles without compromising on fundamental issues.

Here in Pakistan, after wasting a decade in an un-wanted foreign war, there was a chance of smaller but ideologically focused parties to join hands against the so called war on terror.

The other fundamental issues which got spot light during that time were issues like independent judiciary,corruption, missing persons and breaking the status-quo in Pakistani politics.

Two political forces, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf led by Imran Khan and Jamat e Islami led by Munawwar Hassan, can be expected to bring people together on fundamental issues related to the survival of our country. On one hand eyebrows are being raised over the inclusion of former PML-Q members in PTI and their alleged soft corner for MQM which Imran Khan has rejected.

PTI’s poltical leadership has been denying the impression that they are forming any alliance with forces of status-quo, MQM with its politics of violence or any corrupt leadership. Their point of view on the inclusion of new leadership as expressed by Imran Khan recently is that these people are joining PTI after agreeing with PTI’s agenda and knowing that their assets and credibility will be scruitinized before giving them any party tickets.

Time will tell if PTI sticks to what it claims. Now in another turn of events Jamat e Islami is getting closer with PML-N, a force well-known for being an important part of status-quo along with two other pillars including PPP and establishment.

This development is interesting as according to the news reports, Farid Paracha of Jamat e Islami said,“All the PML-Q has been renamed as PTI. If we have to work with these corrupt people, there is no need to get closer to the PTI.”

This line of argument is interesting from Jamat e Islami’s senior leader. JI is criticizing PTI for including those who are joining the party after accepting PTI’s agenda on USA war on terror, corruption,judiciary etc. Also these people are joining PTI after knowing the fact that their assets and credibility will be scruitinized before giving them party tickets.

On the other hand JI prefers to be partners with a party which is itself an important part of status-quo and has a good history of corrupt power politics (JI’s past statements are also there on this). It was evident from the JI’s recent social media campaign that the people in JI who support PML-N and JUI-F are not happy with PTI’s growing popularity and a possible conflict of interest in the form of some common vote bank or supporter base especially anti-war on terror votebank.

If we talk about fundamentals, PML-N supported operations in Sawat and tribal areas, and played its double role in judiciary movement. Also the possibility of them having a clear stance on corruption is very limited, if we look at their past tenures in federal government.

But still they are eligible for being a partner in the eyes of JI’s senior leader despite former accusations by JI on PML-N for playing the role of a friendly opposition.

So far there are no clear statements on the recent developments between PTI and JI relationship by their top most leaderships. According to news reports, they are expected to meet soon to discuss recent developments in Pakistani politics and way forward with each other.

I hope they will keep fundamental issues like war on terror, corrution, indepndent judiciary, missing persons and independent foreign policy in mind before taking any major decision. This is a make or break time for Pakistani politics as new developments are taking place in neighbouring Afghanistan and a new wave of change in Pakistan is knocking our doors.

Will PTI and JI compromise their fundamental stances over some tactical politics? Their answer may determine the future course of our country and its politics.

There is a conventional wisdom story out there on how the PTI is becoming a big, bad, scary machine. The story goes something like this:

Imran Khan is personally popular –> higher chances of success in elections for PTI –> more big-name turncoats join the party –> higher chances of success in elections for PTI –> virtuous cycle

To a large extent, this story is true, but I think it glosses over something that needs to be mentioned. The question is: who are the turncoats joining the party (step 3), and where are they coming from?

While a comprehensive list of all the turncoats that have joined PTI from other parties doesn’t seem to exist**, I’ve at least been able to get some sense of who these people are and which parties they’re coming from. These are the last few results for “joins PTI” on Google Pakistan.

Javed Hashmi — PML(N)

Sardar Aseff Ahmed Ali — PPP

Qaiser Ahmed Sheikh — Independent

Syed Iftikhar Hussain Gilani — PPP

Shah Mahmood Qureshi — PPP

Masood Sharif Khattak — PPP

Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri — PML(Q)

Azam Khan Swati — JUI(F)

Air Marshal Asghar Khan — Tehrik-e-Istaqlal

Mian Khaliq-ur-Rehman –  PML(Q)

Javed Hashmi, waving goodbye to his party, part of a larger trend

One thing that I suggested yesterday to a couple of friends, and have been happy to see borne out in the data (at least so far), is that the absolute lack of turncoats from (a) the Jamaat-e-Islami, and (b) the MQM. I don’t think either is a coincidence.

For me, of the mainstream parties in Pakistan, only two can be said to be ideological: the Jamaat, and the MQM (Islamic revolution through democratic means for the former, middle class empowerment for the latter). All the rest are based on some sense of identity affiliation, whether ethnic or clan or regional or whatever, but calling them ideological would be stretching it.

As a consequence of this distinction, it’s easy to deduce that the median member of the MQM or JI believes a lot more strongly in the message and “rightness” of his/her party than the median member of, say, the PPP, who’s more likely to be interested in contesting a seat on a party ticket. As a result, when the potential for success for [insert party here] ticket goes down, and PTI’s chances of success go up, we’re more likely to see politicians from [insert party here] to leave for the PTI. But if the same thing happens for the JI or MQM, their members stay put.

This is why it’s difficult for me to attach any real policy significance to the PTI’s admittedly excellent run recently. The party is clearly on the rise and forcing observers (including myself) to tick upwards their estimates of how many seats they can/will win. But at the end of the day, even if it wins 100 seats, it doesn’t really represent “change” on the ground, since it’s the same people but under a different party banner.

Anyway, on a slightly related note, you should read Cafe Pyala’s post on the PTI jalsa in Karachi, if you haven’t already.