Good news: Conditions in Somalia have improved enough for the UN to declare an end to the 8-month famine.  Bad news: The food security situation remains perilous for Somalis.

The declaration of the end of drought conditions is good news, but it brings the risk that the international community will see it as the end of the crisis gripping the people in the Horn of Africa.  One resident of a refugee camp in Mogadishu explained, “‘The famine is almost over but we are desperately dependent on the food aid… If they stop it we will be back to [famine conditions] again. Our children are now better than before, but we ask the United Nations still to help us.’”

Mark Bowden, UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia explained,

“We mustn’t give the impression that we’ve solved the problem…What we’ve done is actually reduced the very high levels of mortality and malnutrition which caused so much suffering. And we are now in the position to make even further progress to help people get back to normal lives. But we’ve still quite a long way from a return to normal and secure situations.”

On the ground, nearly 31% of Somalia’s population, or 2.3 million, are still in need of humanitarian assistance.  In the Horn of Africa region, 9.5 million people are expected to need ongoing humanitarian assistance.  Jose Graziano da Silva reminded the public of the continued danger in Somalia by saying  the crisis “‘…can only be resolved with a combination of rains and continued, coordinated, long-term actions that build up the resilience of local populations and link relief with development.’”

Another factor which may be helping with is the weakening of the al-Shabab militant group in Somalia.  BBC reports that while it has been pushed back by foreign forces,  al-Shabab’s deleterious effect on food security is evident in moves like preventing the International Committee for the Red Cross from carrying out its aid mission.

Image credit: Mohamed Abdiwahab/AFP/Getty Images/NPR

US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta’s assertion that Israel is preparing to attack Iran in either April, May, or June has added more speculation and fuel to the sensitive situation surrounding Iran’s nuclear program. David Ignatius’ article in The Washington Post provides us with a bit of evidence that Israel may be preparing for war, demonstrated by its cancelation of a military exercise with US forces that would conclude in May. News that the IAEA was not as pleased with its most recent trip to Iran may also further erode the chances for peace.

Returning to Ignatius’ article, one should pay special attention to Israeli’s thoughts on how Iran would likely respond to a strike on its nuclear facilities. Ignatius notes that some Israelis opine Israel’s attack on Syria’s suspected nuclear facility is an exemplar for how Iran will respond: mainly, do nothing. Moreover, some assert that the Iranian government would be ousted, similar to what occurred in 1976 following Israeli’s hostage rescue in Uganda. If these are honest opinions of important decision makers in Israel, we should be gravely concerned.

Iran would likely not sit back and allow Israel to escape unscathed, nor would the regime be toppled. Evidently it would leverage non-state assets, such as its relationships with Hezbollah, HAMAS, and other Palestinian actors, to pummel Israel, and its populace would unite behind it. It would also likely use IRGC-Quds Force hit squads to target Israeli interests abroad. The US would face a complex dilemma if Iran uses the Quds Force in such a manner, as well as if Iran counter-attacked by striking Israel overtly.

The state of diplomacy between Iran, Israel, and the US demonstrates how the West and Israel’s attempts to use the IAEA, UN, and sanctions against Iran have failed to encourage cooperation. Apparent diplomatic road rage has set in between at least Iran and Israel, which will likely prove deleterious for peace.

Thursday, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak again sought to frame the debate as one of preemptive action to safeguard Israel: ”Whoever says ‘later’, could find that it is too late”, Barak stated. Additionally, the head of the Shin Bet, while not admitting Israel’s culpability, said on Thursday that Iran will likely seek retaliation for recent assassinations of Iranian civilian and military personnel involved in its nuclear program so that it can deter future Israeli action.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, countered in his televised Friday speech that Iran will respond in kind when appropriate, and that sanctions will not alter Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Khamenei furthered that sanctions, in fact, have encouraged Iran’s military to become more self-reliant. It does not appear that Iran will be backing into any corner, furthermore, in light of its intention to double defense spending and expand its diplomatic (and hence intelligence) presence in Africa, as well as its new Spanish speaking television channel, “Hispan TV”.

(Photo Credit: Behrouz Mehri from AFP/Getty Images, 3 June 2011).

Riot police at Port Said stadium (Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images)

At a time when all of the continent’s and indeed the world’s sporting attentions should be focused on the African Cup of Nations being played in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon instead they have to look away toward Egypt where unimaginable tragedy has struck. Scores have died and hundreds have been injured in a clash between rival fans at a match in Port Said. Even as al-Masri beat Cairo’s al-Ahly 3-1 fans went on the rampage. But this was not mere football violence. It is increasingly clear that members of the police and military not only were unable to stop the violence, but many may have been complicit in it. Egypt has declared three days of national mourning.

Tensions between fans coupled with inadequate and indifferent security make for a volatile mix. Add to that the already unstable situation in Egypt and the implications of the events in Port Said ring all the louder.

Google, Reddit, and Wikipedia all are using their considerable web presence today to protest legislation pending in the U.S. Congress. According to the Google announcement:

Two bills before Congress, known as the Protect IP Act (PIPA) in the Senate and the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) in the House, would censor the Web and impose harmful regulations on American business. Millions of Internet users and entrepreneurs already oppose SOPA and PIPA.

It may appear to the casual reader that this is an effort by entertainment corporations (Hollywood) to impose their particular view of internet regulation on the rest of the country and encountering opposition from Silicon Valley. What’s not commonly understood (and why this is a subject for our discussion) is that provisions of these laws block foreign websites. In other words, the U.S. Congress has taken it upon itself to legislate for the world. This is why Wikipedia (a global encyclopedia) has blacked-out it’s English-language version that is available all over the world. While this is much more common than most would think (the U.S. Congress often sets standards that other countries and businesses must meet in order to do business in the U.S. – often their largest market – which makes the U.S. Congress a de facto global lawmaking body) it’s an excellent example of the global scope of American laws.

It’s particularly ironic that the U.S. Congress is seeking to curtail internet access while another branch of the U.S. government, the Executive Branch (namely the State Department) is seeking to undermine those countries that censor the internet. As this report notes:

The United States plans to pump millions of dollars into new technology to break through Internet censorship overseas amid a heightened crackdown on dissent in China, officials have said. State Department officials said they would give $19 million to efforts to evade Internet controls in China, Iran and other authoritarian states which block online access to politically sensitive material [...] The funding comes out of $30 million which the US Congress allocated in the current fiscal year for Internet freedom.

The New York Times clarifies some of the specific strategies and tactics the U.S. will use as this policy is implemented:

The State Department plans to finance programs like circumvention services, which enable users to evade Internet firewalls, and training for human rights workers on how to secure their e-mail from surveillance or wipe incriminating data from cellphones if they are detained by the police [...] Administration officials say that the emphasis on a broad array of projects — hotly disputed by some technology experts and human rights activists — reflects their view that technology can be a force that leads to democratic change, but is not a “magic bullet” that brings down repressive regimes.

A commendable policy, to be sure, but what happens if the repressive regime is the U.S.?

We are witnessing a very odd development in which other countries seek to block access to politically sensitive material while the U.S. seeks to block access to commercially sensitive material. Some would say it amounts to the same thing: state-sponsored censorship.

It is now a stock phrase among presidents and presidential candidates that they want to champion U.S. values abroad. Here is a perfect opportunity for them to do that. Does the U.S. stand for freedom of expression or censorship? The upcoming votes on SOPA and PIPA may well provide the answer.

Image Credit: CNN/AFP/Getty Images

Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images

Would President Obama’s new security strategy, a plan for a “leaner” U.S. military, unveiled earlier this month, have prevented the Iraq War were it adopted a decade sooner? Sarwar Kashmeri, a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, makes just this point in his analysis of U.S. defense strategy in the Huffington Post.  Is the history of U.S. intervention since 9/11 necessary to understand President Obama’s decision to refocus military power on small, agile forces rather than large ground troops? Or could the U.S. have implemented this defense doctrine sooner?

Read Kashmeri’s interesting analysis here.

Aamir Qureshi / AFP – Getty Images

Cyclists compete during the second stage of the Himalayas 2011 International Mountainbike Race in the mountainous area of Lake Saif-ul-Maluk in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on Sept. 17. The cycling event, organized by the Kaghan Memorial Trust to raise funds for its charity school set up in the Kaghan valley for children affected in the October 2005 earthquake, attracted some 30 international and 11 Pakistani cyclists.

Reuters

Policemen pick up clothing and shoes of residents who were targeted by a suicide bomber during a funeral in Bero Shina, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on Sept. 15. The funeral was for a member of a pro-government Pashtun tribe in northwest Pakistan. The blast killed at least 40 people.
The death toll from a suicide bombing at a funeral in Pakistan’s northwest climbed to 40 on Friday, police said.

Fayaz Aziz / Reuters

A tear runs down a boy’s face as he lies on a bench after being treated for his injuries at the Lady Reading Hospital in Peshawar, Sept. 13. Gunmen opened fire on a school bus, killing four children and the driver. Fifteen children were wounded.
Gunmen opened fire on a school bus in the Pakistani city of Peshawar on Tuesday, killing four children and the driver, a police official said.

Naseer Ahmed / Reuters

Mohammad Azam, 56, sits injured as a dead child lies nearby, at the site of a double suicide bombing in Quetta Sept. 7. Two suicide bombers targeting a senior security official struck near government offices in the southwestern Pakistani city of Quetta, killing at least 22 people.
A pair of suicide bombers killed 22 people while targeting a top army officer in southwest Pakistan on Wednesday, missing him and killing his wife, several guards, a senior officer and two children, officials said.

Banaras Khan / AFP – Getty Images

Local residents attempt to extinguish burning vechicles after a car bomb blast in Quetta on Aug. 31. A car bomb exploded in a parking lot after Eid prayers, killing at least four people and wounding 10 others.

Arif Ali / AFP – Getty Images

Pakistani railway and security officials gather around train wreckage following a crash in Lahore on Aug. 30. At least two people were killed and 17 others wounded, five of them critically, when two trains collided in the eastern Pakistani city of Lahore. Train travel is popular among Pakistan’s poorer classes, but the railways have been hit by a severe funding shortfall and a lack of barriers at most level crossings are a frequent cause of accidents.

Saood Rehman / EPA

Pakistani Army officials display ammunition and arms recovered during an operation in Dra Zinda outskirts area of Dera Ismail Khan, Aug. 29. Pakistan is under intense pressure to eliminate sanctuaries of Taliban and al-Qaida fighters, but the militants have responded by intensifying attacks on security and government installations across the country.

Stringer/pakistan / Reuters

A cobbler waits for customers at his shoe repair shop in Quetta Aug. 29.

Fareed Khan / AP

Pakistani paramilitary troops enter into a house during a crackdown operation against target killers and the extortion mafia in a troubled area in Karachi, Aug. 28. Over one hundred people lost their lives in the week prior in a fresh wave of violence which crippled the Pakistan’s largest city.

Asghar Achakzai / AFP – Getty Images

Pakistani security personnel examine a crashed American surveillance drone just inside Pakistan territory in the town of Chaman, on Aug. 25. The American surveillance drone crashed in southwestern Pakistan near a paramilitary base close to the Afghan border, Pakistani officials said.

Arshad Arbab / EPA

Pakistani security officials in Peshawar on Oct. 21 carry the coffins of paramilitary Frontier Constabulary members who were killed in an attack in the Shalobar area of Bara Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province. At least 34 alleged militants and three soldiers were killed during a clash along the Afghan border in northwestern Pakistan. The fighting occurred in a stronghold of the Lashkar-e-Islam militant group.

Matiullah Achakzai / EPA

Arshad Butt / AP

 

People mourn next to the body of a relative at a hospital in Quetta, Oct. 4. Suspected Sunni extremists opened fire on Shiite Muslims traveling through southwestern Pakistan.

 

 

K.m. Chaudary / AP

 

A supporter holds a poster of Mumtaz Qadri, the confessed killer of a liberal Pakistani governor, during a rally to condemn the court decision against Qadri on Oct. 1 in Lahore. A Pakistani court convicted and sentenced Qadri to death for the killing of Salman Taseer, a murder that led to fears the country was buckling under the weight of extremism. Taseer was an outspoken critic of the country’s “blasphemy laws.”
Angry demonstrations broke out in Pakistan after a court on Saturday convicted and sentenced a police officer to death for the killing of a liberal governor.

Aamir Qureshi / AFP – Getty Images

 

Residents gather at the site of a blast in Islamabad, Sept. 29, that ripped through the top floor of a hotel building in Islamabad, injuring at least six people. City police chief Bani Amin said the cause of the blast appeared “to be a gas cylinder” that was still leaking at the Citi Hotel in the Blue Area, a bustling district of shops and restaurants.

Athar Hussain / Reuters

 

Supporters of the Pakistan People’s Party wave flags during an anti-American rally near the U.S. consulate in Karachi, Sept. 27. Pakistan, facing a crisis in relations with the United States, appears to be seeking more support from China.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Banaras Khan / AFP – Getty Images

 

Shiite Muslims shout slogans as they carry coffins during a funeral ceremony for those killed in an attack in Quetta on Sept. 21. Gunmen shot dead 26 Pakistani Shiite pilgrims traveling to Iran on Sept. 20, the deadliest attack on the minority community in Pakistan for more than a year. In a brutal assault, gunmen ordered pilgrims off their bus, lined them up and shot them. Two weeks later, a similar incident left 13 dead.
Suspected Sunni extremists shot 13 Shiite Muslims to death execution-style after ordering them off a bus and lining them up Tuesday in southwestern Pakistan, ramping up a campaign of sectarian violence that has exposed Islamabad’s inability to protect minorities.

Pervez Masih / AP

 

Displaced Pakistanis try to hand over their identity cards to get permits for relief at an office in Tando Mohammad Khan near Hyderabad, Sept, 29. Flooding killed scores of people, destroyed some 665,000 homes and displaced nearly 1.8 million people in Sindh province.

 

Athar Hussain / Reuters

 

 

Athar Hussain / Reuters

Residents peer past a cloth barrier raised to cordon off the scene of a suicide bomb attack in Karachi on Sept. 19. At least eight people were killed, including six policemen, after a Taliban suicide bomber drove an explosives-laden car into the home of a senior police official in Pakistan’s commercial center, Karachi.
At least eight people were killed, including six policemen, after a Taliban suicide bomber drove an explosives-laden car into the home of a senior police official in Pakistan’s commercial hub Karachi on Monday.

A. Majeed / AFP – Getty Images

 

Pakistani firefighters attempt to extinguish a fire after a bomb blast at a market in Peshawar on Sept. 19. The bomb killed at least five people and wounded 28 others at a market selling CDs.

 

 

 

Arif Ali / AFP – Getty Images

A Pakistani boy drinks tea in a makeshift shelter at a livestock market ahead of Eid al-Adha in Lahore on Nov.5. The annual Islamic holiday, is marked by the ritual sacrifice after morning prayers of sheep, goats, cows and other livestock whose meat is then shared with the poor.

Mk Chaudhry / EPA

People carry posters of Pakistani cricketers Salman Butt and Mohammad Asif, who were sentenced by the London’s Southwark Crown Court to jail for their role in a fixing affair around a test match against England last year, during a protest in Multan on Nov. 3. The suspects were charged after an undercover reporter from the now defunct News of the World paper recorded Mazhar Majeed, the agent of the players, as saying he could arrange fixing schemes with Pakistan players. Butt was sentenced to 30 months and Asif received a sentence of one year. Teammate Mohammad Amir received a 6 month sentence.

Bilawal Arbab / EPA

Pakistani police officials inspect the site of a planted bomb blast in Karkhano market Peshawar, Nov. 2. One man was killed and at least 13 were injured when the bomb planted in a car exploded.

Aamir Qureshi / AFP – Getty Images

Supporters of Pakistani politician Imran Khan and chief of Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice) party, burn a replica drone during protest rally in Islamabad, Oct. 28. Khan staged a rally along with tribal elders in Islamabad against the continued US drone attacks in tribal areas which they said were killing hundreds of innocent people. Nearly 60 US drone strikes have been reported in Pakistan so far this year, dozens of them since Navy SEALs killed Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in the garrison city of Abbottabad in May.

Aamir Qureshi / AFP – Getty Images

Pakistani politician and chief of Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice) party, Imran Khan, left, waves to supporters during protest rally in Islamabad on Oct. 28.

Rahat Dar / EPA

The gun of a member of the Pakistani police guard rests on a rooftop as supporters of the main opposition party Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) rally against the ruling Pakistan People Party, in Lahore, Oct. 28. The opposition protested against prolonged electricity outages and urged the government to take steps to address endemic corruption and price hikes.

Dsk / EPA

A still image from the video released by Taliban militants and made available to members of the media on Oct. 25, shows Swiss couple Daniela Widmer, 28, left, and Olivier David Och, 31, right, at an undisclosed location near the Pakistani-Afghan border, Oct. 15. Taliban militants holding the couple released the video in which the hostages call on the Swiss, Pakistani and the United States’ governments to release a Pakistani woman, Aafia Siddiqui, who has been convicted in the U.S. on charges of terrorism. Talibans have warned that if Aafia was not released, then their Islamic court would decide the fate of the Swiss and they will not hesitate to carry out any punishment, an indirect reference to the past executions. The Swiss couple was seized by gunmen on July 1 in the Loralai district after entering Pakistan from India.

A. Majeed / AFP – Getty Images

Pakistani internally displaced girls wait for food at the Jalozai camp in Nowshera district on Oct. 25. At least 18,000 people have fled their homes in Pakistan’s tribal district of Khyber. Families streamed out of the district, a flash point for Taliban and other violent groups on the NATO supply line into neighboring Afghanistan, after the army ordered them to leave because of military action going on in the area.

Arif Ali / AFP – Getty Images

Activists of ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) light candles in remembrance of former first lady Nusrat Bhutto in Lahore on Oct. 24. Thousands of mourners led by President Asif Ali Zardari turned out for the burial of former Pakistani first lady Nusrat Bhutto, the mother of assassinated prime minister Benazir Bhutto. The widow of Pakistan’s first democratically elected leader, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, and mother of Benazir Bhutto, died in Dubai at the aged 82 after a long illness.

Aamir Qureshi / AFP – Getty Images

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leaves the Pakistani Foreign Ministry after talks with Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Kharm, right. in Islamabad on Friday, Oct. 21, 2011. Clinton urged Pakistan to take “strong steps” to deny Afghan militants safe haven and to encourage the Taliban to reconcile after 10 years of fighting.

Chris Hondros's photo was named one oof TIME's Top 10 Photos of 2011

2011 was a year of heartbreaking tragedies for journalists caught up in the tide of massive world events. Certain cases of journalists killed and attacked in the crossfire of the stories they were reporting stand out. In 2011, there were many instances in which the media became part of the story they were covering. Sometimes they themselves became the story.

The tide of Arab Spring that swept across many countries in the Middle East during 2011 was hailed as a humanistic victory for the region and the world. But it came at an incredibly high cost, and with very murky results. It might be too early to see what the results of the popular uprisings in the countries impacted by Arab Spring will be, but it is not too soon to see at what cost the changes came, among them that the media is more a target than ever before.

Photographers Chris Hondros’s and Tim Hetherington’s shocking deaths in Misrata, Libya were significant losses. Both men were at the height of their unique careers. Their work was highly valuable to the international public discourse on the stories they covered. The horrific sexual assault of correspondent Lara Logan in Cairo, Egypt shocked the world. The days-long captivity of dozens of journalists in the Rixos Hotel in Tripoli was another indication of how much international correspondents are needed, but how vulnerable they can be. In Syria, cameraman Ferzat Jarban was seen being taken into custody by officials while on the job. He was soon after found dead on the side of the road with his eyes gouged out. In September, when the Israeli embassy in Cairo was stormed by angry mobs, there were numerous Tweets from journalists on the ground reporting that they had seen other reporters getting attacked by the mob.

Ironically, many of the same stories of tragedy also provide inspiration. Lara Logan, in an interview with 60 Minutes, broke the unwritten code of silence for female journalists who were sexually assaulted while on the job. One of Chris Hondros’s last photos ever taken–on the afternoon he was killed–was named by TIME magazine as a top 10 photo of 2011. The reporters who were trapped in the Rixos Hotel conducted themselves, by all accounts, with tremendous professionalism and restraint. Matthew Chance, CNN International Foreign Correspondent, even managed to send out detailed, informative Tweets from inside the Rixos during the ordeal. Local reporters in Syria continue to work despite the cloud of murder they operate under after the thinly veiled, violent threat sent to them via the brutal murder of their colleague.

All of this shows not only that the world can still surprise us with its sudden change, as in the downfall of the decades-old regime of Gaddhafi in Libya. Or the Egyptian citizens who continue to insist on self-governance, despite a very rocky beginning. The work of journalists during 2011 was commendable, remarkable, highly valuable, and tragic. It will always be remembered simultaneously as a year of great change and loss.

Junior D. Kannah/AFP/Getty Images

It is always worth remembering the elections are a necessary but not sufficient condition for the emergence of democratic states. The same can be said about the connection between elections and the twin pillars of freedom and stability that most of us desire for struggling nation states.

I’ve been thinking of these linkages as the election in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has been playing out in recent days. The DRC, deeply troubled, ravaged with violence and instability, has nonetheless seen incremental progress in recent years. And so in the run-up to the presidential elections this past week observers wondered if a presidential vote would help to fuel stability or reveal the continuing fissures that exacerbate instability. We may not yet have our answer, but I’m leaning in the direction of the latter.

In the wake of violence at several (but, it should be noted, far from even a substantial minority) polling places the vote went on as scheduled Monday, and to try to address insufficient infrastructure, the polling continued into Tuesday. Violence, coupled with the almost inevitable accusations of fraud (as a sad rule of thumb the opposition in African elections almost always screams fraud), mean that the legitimacy of the outcome of the election is in doubt even if the majority seems to embrace the importance of the vote, and thus that going forward the election may contribute to a general sense of insecurity for the majority of people in the DRC for whom politics mater only inasmuch as governments ought to be able to provide security and infrastructure.

Officials declared that partial results will be announced sometime today in hopes of assuaging fears of post-election violence. The thought process seemed to be that delaying an announcement of results until Tuesday, which was the initial plan, will fuel instability. It seems to me, however, that releasing roughly ten-percent of the vote might heighten instability inasmuch as it will give those partisans inclined toward violence a running start toward mobilizing like thinkers. Those early results, containing an estimated 15% of the total and no Kinshasa precincts, indicate that incumbent Joseph Kabila holds a reasonably comfortable (and as of now perhaps higher than expected) lead, with nearly 52% support.

No panacea, these elections are nonetheless vitally important to the DRC going forward. The question, however, is whether their importance will be affirmative or negative, a moment in the country’s history when things continued to go right or a moment when they went the other way. This could be a fraught moment for a country familiar with fraught moments.