Ah, to think of the games of chance or strategy that keep us so entertained and enthralled.
Played for fun, stakes or mere pride, the allure of the games of chance arises from the unique mixture of skill and luck required for success. As all of us addicted to such games, for occasional monetary considerations, are all too aware that fate is a very fickle mistress indeed.
Disguised as luck she flirts without any inhibition, first enticing, then inviting and finally possessing. Whether it’s a board game or cards, this lady is equally adept at controlling the roll of the dice or the shuffle of the deck and in deciding the outcome. And as any punter would tell you on his honor, or whatever is left of it, once in the clutches of this particular belle dame san’s mercy it’s impossible to break free.
The advantage then, of sorts, as far as these games are concerned is that the loss of either or all of honor, pride or wealth can be blamed on the whim of the goddess Fortuna.
Unfortunately this is not the case with strategy games. Win or loss here has to do with the skills of the players. Take chess, that ultimately consummate strategy game. Based on the timeless principles of war those sixty four squares contain millions of possible permutations of moves.
Between well versed equals it’s a fascinating battle of wits to set and spring traps and counter traps. Such matches are mostly settled when in brutal endgame a series of pieces are sacrificed by both side to achieve that crucial aim of checkmating the opposing king. All other pieces can be sacrificed in order to either protect one’s own king or checkmate that of the opposition’s. All moves in chess are therefore incidental to this one grand design.
The current Pakistani political situation is akin a deadly game of chess, being played out with very high stakes. On one side we have our ruling coalition and on the other side the Kiyani & Pasha duo in the vanguard. The ruling coalition is defending while the opponents are on the offensive . However as grand masters well know the most difficult task in chess is to break down a well constructed defense.
The memo gate and covert support for PTI are frontal attacks designed to provoke the government into some rash reaction, thereby breaking its defense. However Zardari & co have put up a masterly exhibition of defensive moves. Having secured their vulnerable flanks with the Presidential immunity, a wide alliance of political parties and a tacit understanding with PML against teaming up with the army, they are now simply biding their time. The upcoming senate elections are what they are aiming for. Winning the majority of senate seats up for elections, as expected, will considerably strengthen their position.
They have correctly assessed that the army traditionally only moves against the civilian government when there is a mass civilian street agitation to act as a smokescreen for its true intentions, a power grab. They have neutralized this aspect by giving PTI complete leeway in terms of holding mass rallies and studiously avoiding any semblance of counter agitation. With meaningful choice finally available in the upcoming elections, most of the Pakistani voters would prefer to bring change by ballot.
The only option left in such a situation to the opponents is to undertake a series of risky gambits, something which they have have now resorted to.
Thus this move of the NRO case. Our constitution’s article 248 clearly grants the President, and Governors, immunity from all civil and criminal proceedings during the term of their offices. This means that in order to initiate such proceeding the President first has to be impeached by the parliament. As per article 47 this requires a two third majority of the combined total votes of the National Assembly and the Senate.
To all those remotely interested in due process of law, please remember the cases of Presidents Nixon and Clinton. Nixon resigned because impeachment was a certainty. He subsequently only escaped a trial as President Ford pardoned him. Dear Clinton actually went through the impeachment proceedings which failed to garner the required votes. No subsequent criminal charges could therefore be levied on him.
On purely legal grounds therefore the NRO case has no merit. But then stranger things have happened in Pakistan. Let’s hope the writ of law is upheld by the guardians of law.
Make no mistake, these coming three months are going to be among the most critical ones in the political history of Pakistan. If senate elections are held on time, then early general elections will be the governments first priority. Both these events should go a long way in establishing the credibility of the election process as a means of managing change.
I sincerely hope that Messrs. Kiyani & Pasha show maturity and do not opt for some rash action in order to force an endgame before March. Any such move is going to have a devastating and possibly fatal impact on the prospects of political stability and national unity.
But fingers crossed all the same. Fate, like most beautiful females, has a latent cruel streak. We can only hope that she is in a benevolent mood and does not spring a nasty surprise on us.
For the first time in our history a civilian setup has managed to sustain a confrontation of this manner for such a period of time. The credit for this should also go to all the opposition political parties. Whatever their individual merits or demerits this time they have avoided the temptation of openly siding with the army.
Whatever the outcome of this match the President and the Prime Minister have managed to contain the influence of the chiefs of Army and ISI, and ensured that the parliament and judiciary remain very relevant. The judiciary has emerged stronger and is likely to challenge the government shortly, as it should, but then that is liable to be a much more civilized confrontation.
So hats off to you, messrs Zardari and Gillani. Please take a bow, you have earned it. Corrupt, inept, greedy and God only knows what else you may be but without a shadow of doubt you are fighting the good fight, for all the wrong reasons. But then that is a minor irritation when seen in the bigger context. And looking at the chessboard, and the position of the pieces, you are indeed masters of the game.
