The 5th International Power Generation Conference & Exhibition 2012 was held at Marriott, Karachi on the 2nd of February with the agenda ‘Future Energy Mix in Overcoming the Power Crisis’.

The conference was attended by a plethora of scientists  and dignitaries from all walks of life.

 

 

It was a star-studded event with speeches and presentations from Manzoor Soomro- Chairman Pakistan Science Foundation (PSF), Mian Abrar Hussain, President Karachi Chamber of Commerce, Dr. Tilo Klinner – Consul General Germany, Nasim Khan VC Hamdard University, Saigan Sharif – Additional Secretary of Ministry of Science & Technology, Qazi Kamal – Chairman Fuel, Gas, Power Sub-SITE Association, Tahir Saleem – Chairman IEEE, Zubair Motiwala – Chairman Board of Investment Govt. of Pakistan, Naeem Qureshi – Managing Editor Energy Update, Shazia Marri – Minister for Electric Power Sindh, Junaid Qureshi – CEO SSJD, Faisal Qureshi – CEO 24/7 Online TV, Abdullah Muhammad Yousuf – Chairman IPP’s Advisory Council, Rukhsana Zuberi – Chairperson women in energy, Shaaf Mehboob – CEO Adoptive Solar.

The conference was organized by Energy Update Magazine 

Here’s  a brief lowdown of what went on in the conference.

 

Manzoor Soomro- Chairman Pakistan Science Foundation (PSF):

• Promote and popularize science.
• Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) signed with all chambers of commerce in Pakistan.
• Reach is not limited to MOUs but to universities and beyond.
• Provide funding to research institutes.
• Enormous potential in both conserving and generating energy cost-effectively, only it needs to be channeled out properly.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjVeR4LkS-Y&feature=youtu.be

Mian Abrar Hussain, President Karachi Chamber of Commerce

• The energy crisis and resulting loadshedding of electricity and gas has resulted in a staggering monetary loss of Rs.288 Billion per annum. 
• This is a loss of Rs.24 Billion per month, or Rs.857 million per day. 
• This much money could have been used to finance 44 Large scale manufacturing units or serve 10 million unemployed people. 
• $12 Billion is the annual import bill for furnace oil. 
•  30% of energy wasted in distribution. 
• Energy security plan is needed on the same lines as Nuclear Security Plan to safeguard the future of Pakistan.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqekJYHaYPE&feature=youtu.be

Naeem Qureshi – Managing Editor Energy Update

• Welcomed the participants to the fifth PowerGen Pak Conference.
• Thanked the speakers and the guest for gracing the occasion with their presence, and the sponsors for lending support to this worthy cause.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cW-k4nvLqBY&feature=youtu.be

Dr. Tilo Klinner – Consul General Germany

• Renewable energy is the future of the world due to depleting natural sources of fuel.
• Wind energy percentage contribution to electricity generation in the world:
  • 21% Denmark
  • 15% Portugal
  • 14% Spain
  • 7.5% Germany
  • There’s a 40 MW plant in Gujarat, India run solely on solar power.
  • 17,000 MW contribution by solar power to national grid in Germany.
  • There are large lignite coal fields in Eastern Germany which provide the bulk of the power. However, they’ve a large carbon footprint.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4g2VPhRjAI&feature=youtu.be

Nasim Khan VC Hamdard University

• In 1999, a German company estimated the wind corridor in Pakistan to be worth 50,000 MW.
• Research by an American University put the estimate at 110,000 MW.
• Germany has been able to capture and make use of 17,000 MW of solar energy in spite of the fact that Germany doesn’t get as much sun as Pakistan.
• Due to circular debt, electric companies are unable to afford wind power companies.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6qVKkA-dRc&feature=youtu.be

Saigan Sharif – Additional Secretary of Ministry of Science & Technology:

• Karachi to Gwadar corridor has the potential of 7,000-10,000 MW generation through wind energy.
• Nexus needed between government, research institutes and industry for a workable plan.
• Much of the existing problems are due to lack of understanding between the three.
• Government has its own limits and cannot launch projects based on research by institutes. However it can support them in conjunction with the industry.
• Scientists have the tendency to quarrel amongst themselves for who gets the patent to an invention or innovation.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QR-kpByM8EE&feature=youtu.be

Qazi Kamal – Chairman Fuel, Gas, Power Sub-SITE Association

• There are 104 Nuclear power plants in US and 70 in France which contribute roughly 20% of total electricity.
• 35% of power in Western Europe is achieved through nuclear means.
• China has plans to set up 40 nuclear power plants.
• India plans to generate 63,000 MW of nuclear energy by 2032 with the help of General Electric USA.
• Pakistan only gets 712 MW of nuclear energy.
• Pakistan has substantial reserves of uranium, 500 times more than gold in various mines all over the country.
• Pakistan also has 5% uranium enrichment capability.
• 2,000MW energy through KANUP 2 and 3 will be attained.
• 8,000MW is the target for nuclear energy.
• The establishment of Pakistan Nuclear Power Fuel Complex will go a long way in attaining self-sufficiency in nuclear energy.

Tahir Saleem – Chairman IEEE:

• Problem with energy usage not energy production.
• KESC has installed capacity of 1260MW but only 600MW of power are being delivered by them.
• WAPDA had planned 40,000MW of electricity by 2010. Hardly 2,000MW have been added.
• 10-15% of energy saving is possible without any investment.
• 22% of energy saving is possible with investment.
• 70% of electrical consumption is by the industry.
• Load lightening devices are available which reduce electrical consumption.
• Government should make it mandatory for the industry to install these devices which will reduce the electrical load on the national grid.
• Co-generation provides 30% additional energy, a strategy which is being used by hotels.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ntFBeYYd9E&feature=youtu.be

Zubair Motiwala – Chairman Board of Investment, Govt. of Pakistan

• 22,000 MW is the installed capacity.
• Rs.300 Bn circular debt in July, now touching Rs.400 Bn.
• 12 hours of loadshedding in the industrial areas until 2 weeks ago.
• Pakistan has the fifth largest coal reserves in the world – 173Bn which will last 300 years.
• Thar has huge reserves of lignite coal as determined by research carried out by RW Germany.
• Special incentives offered by Pakistan Board of Investment for investing in Pakistan’s coal reserves:
  • 20% Return on Equity
  • 30 years tax holiday
  • No custom duty on import of machinery
  • Sales tax exemption
  • United Energy, 3 Gorges and Engro are some of the companies interested in this investment.
  • In 2015 the first powerplant using the thar coal would be operational.
  • Pak-Chine energy commission has determined that there’s a 80km wide as well as long wind corridor with speeds up to 800 knots, which is more than India.
  • A Turkish company is already operating wind turbines in Sindh which are producing 5MW.
  • 34 more turbines are in the offing which will raise the output to 50MW.
  • Plans are in place to allow duty-free import of batteries to store wind energy.
  • Break-up of contribution to electricity:
    • 1/3^rd Hydel
    • 1/3^rd  Thermal
    • 1/3^rd  Diesel/captive/nuclear

 

• Contribution of gas to national grid:
  • Sindh 69%
  • Balochistan 13%
  • Punjab 5%
  • Share of gas:
    • 27% Sindh
    • 17% Balochistan
    • 45% Punjab
    • Total production was 3800 mmcf, now 200 mmcf have been added making to 4,000 mmcf.
    • Sindh gets 1150 mmcf and Punjab 1800 mmcf.
    • There are 2700 CNG stations in Punjab while 800 CNG stations in Sindh and Balochistan.
    • Most of these 2700 CNG stations in Punjab are illegal connections given after 2007 and result in shortage of gas as the network has become so much convoluted.  
    • 40,000 of unutilized hydel capacity in Pakistan.
    • 2,000 MW for 300 years possible from Thar coal reserves.
    • 15,000 MW addition expected from Thar coal by 2020.

 TO BE CONTINUED IN THE NEXT PART……..

No related posts.

A couple of weeks shy of the scheduled presidential elections, Vice-President Abdu Rabbo Mansour Hadi announced in an official ceremony that he would run for president, adding that he hoped Yemenis would entrust him with the responsibility of running the affairs of the state.
On Tuesday, Yemenis across the country woke up to find that a number of posters advocating their electoral participation had been hung throughout their towns and villages, reminding them of their democratic, constitutional and civic duties. But since VP Hadi is the only candidate running for president, and no matter how few people decide to show up to cast their vote the veteran politician will still be pronounced the winner, many Yemenis are wondering whether the whole thing is a farce and if they should indulge in such a travesty of the democratic system.
From Sana’a to Aden, the eastern shore of the Red Sea to the leafy hills of Hadramaut, Yemenis from all faiths and political denominations are asking the same question: “What does this have to do with us?”

Flash Back

At the beginning of it all, when Yemenis decided during the ousting of Egyptian President Husni Mubarak to rise against their own dictator, President Ali Abdullah Saleh, they wanted to bring about real democracy, turning their country into a civil state where justice, freedom and equality would be revered notions, not just ink on paper. But as Saleh held on to his presidential seat and as blood started flowing through the streets of Sana’a, the capital and Taiz, a flash point of the Revolution, foreign nations scrambled to save Yemen from the precipice, too aware of its strategic importance within the region.

From that moment on, revolutionaries were put aside, ignored by the politicians, as diplomats and high ranking statesmen worked at finding a solution to the conundrum that had become Yemen. In between its many overlapping conflicts, widespread poverty and the threat of terror groups looming in the shadows, Yemen is unlike any other land. Very much like President Saleh put it himself, ruling over Yemen equates to “dancing over the heads of snakes”. But for one who truly understands the essence of Yemen, there is an order to the apparent chaos.

The GCC proposal that enunciated the terms of the power-transfer and its mechanisms never actually took into account the will of the people, but rather it was tailored around Saleh’s will, ensuring him an honorable exit with the promise of immunity. In other words, the fate of Yemen’s presidency was sealed by a group of technocrats and politicians, while the good people of Yemen were completely put on the back burner for it was “better this way.”

Democracy

VP Hadi, who is a member of the ruling party, was chosen by both the General People’s Congress and the Opposition as the candidate of the coalition, ensuring that no other contender would enter the presidential race.
And if even Western diplomats have argued that the move was intended to preserve the country’s unity and avoid a bitter battle for power from the various political factions, Yemenis saw no sense in it. Revolutionaries actually contested the legitimacy of the power-transfer deal from the very second it was inked in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, warning that they would continue to fight until Yemen power players would acknowledge their demands.

And although there was no further violent confrontation between the armed forces and the revolutionaries, at least not in the magnitude manifested before the agreement, hundreds of thousands of Yemenis across the nation are still demanding to be heard, rejecting as a whole “Saleh tailored plan.”

“Are you seriously telling me that a one-man-election can be called democratic? Are you telling me that after a year of suffering, blood spilled and all around misery, that the best the West and its minions could come up with is Hadi? Are Yemenis so stupid that the West does not trust them to choose their own leader? Why couldn’t we have a normal presidential elections like in Egypt based on the principle of political pluralism? Is it so hard to understand that Yemen wants a real civil state… not a make believe one where the old regime is still present but with a new face?” a leader of the Independent Youth argued.

Another sore point, which Yemeni are finding hard to swallow, lies in the fact that the United Nations, through its multitude of agencies, is currently throwing away several millions of dollars to organize the elections. “Millions of us are going hungry for we have lost everything in our struggle for freedom and rather than pull all the country’s resources together to bring some relief to war-torn areas, the government prefers to spend the UN money on stupid posters and presidential campaign? It is insulting to the nation. We don’t need posters but we need bread. So kindly Hadi, cash out your checks and feed your country,” said an English teacher in “Change Square”, the epicenter of the revolutionary movement.
Yemen is said to have spent 8 million dollars on Hadi’s campaign, with all the funds provided by Japan, Germany, Denmark and the United Kingdom. Given that the majority of the population lives on under $2 per day, this money could have prevented 4 million of people from going hungry or could have provided 80,000 families with an average salary of $100 for a month. Many are warning that in spite of the coalition government’s claims that all will be fixed after February 21st with Saleh’s departure from power, one might want to have a look at who is leading Yemen’s military. With his sons, nephews and brother still very much in charge of the nation’s fire power, Saleh might not have yet said his last goodbye to Yemen. In which case, the GCC proposal will only allow the autocrat to regroup and plan his comeback.

The Chinese Ambassador to Canada, H.E. Zhang Junsai, spoke at a luncheon at the Montreal Council on Foreign Relations today. The Montreal Gazette has an article on his talk, emphasizing the fact that he twice affirmed that China is committed to peace in the Arctic.

A member of the audience that the newspaper reported to be a “specialist in Arctic and northern security issues” asked Zhang about the region, and he responded, “We hope that this will be solved by peaceful means. I don’t know much about this but we would like to participate and be (an) observer. We hope that the countries (on the council) would support China’s request.”

CBC quoted Zhang: “My understanding, not of my government, is we should have a joint scientific research in this area because a lot of things are unknown.” Scientific research has been one area in which China has been able to contribute a lot, whether with its research expeditions on its icebreaker or its station on Ny-Alesund.

China seeks to gain permanent observer status on the Arctic Council, which Canada will begin chairing next year. There are a number of other countries on the Arctic Council, but all of them are European; none from the Far East have been admitted. Currently, Denmark supports China’s bid. This is not surprising given the recent increase in trade between the two countries and China’s high hopes for investing in Greenland’s minerals. Yet Norway dropped its support of Chinese observer status after Beijing cut off political and human rights dialogues with Oslo when the Nobel Committee awarded imprisoned Chinese activist Liu Xiaobo with the Nobel Peace Prize in October 2010. Beijing also took other retaliatory measures such as enforcing stricter controls on Norwegian salmon imports, causing their sales to fall dramatically. Though the Nobel Committee is made up of five members appointed by the Storting, Norway’s parliament, they are not beholden to it, so it is somewhat misguided for Beijing to take out its displeasure on Oslo.

This excerpt, taken from the Nobel Committee’s website, describes Alfred Nobel’s vision in setting up the committee and the prize.

“Nobel may also have feared that the highly political nature of the Peace Prize would make it a tool in power politics and thereby reduce its significance as an instrument for peace. A prize-committee selected by a rather progressive parliament from a small nation on the periphery of Europe, without its own foreign policy and with only a very distant past as autonomous military power, may perhaps have been expected to be more innocent in matters of power politics than would a committee from the most powerful of the Scandinavian countries, Sweden.”

The awarding of a Nobel Peace Prize to a Chinese activist has altered not just Chinese-Norwegian relations, but also Arctic relations. This is a world a century away from that of Nobel, indeed.

In the Guardian, Karsten Klepsvik, the senior Arctic official at the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was quoted as saying, “I can neither confirm nor deny this story, but I can say bilateral contacts between Norway and China are at a low level.” Norway’s decision to counteract China’s snubs by blocking it in the Arctic Council shows that it is upping the stakes in the dispute by moving the chess pieces north. The Arctic, and membership in the region’s most important multilateral body, are now important enough to be used as bargaining chips. If China doesn’t back down, it will need to shore up support with other countries, like Canada, instead. Prime Minister Stephen Harper will be visiting China next week, so the government will have another opportunity to convince the leader of the upcoming Arctic Council chair of its merit.

China has already invested millions in the Athabaska oil sands. It is also planning to invest in Quebec’s Plan Nord, the province’s strategy for developing its northern half. Last August, Quebec Premiere Jean Charest traveled to China and Japan to promote Asian investment in his province. On January 12, Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., China’s third-largest steelmaker, successfully closed the deal to create a joint venture with Adriana Resources, a Canadian iron ore producer, to develop deposits in Lac Otelnuk, in Nunavik, Quebec. Jilin Jien Nickel also recently announced a CAN $400 million investment in a nickel mine near Kangiqsujuaq, Nunavik, and it has signed agreements with three Inuit communities to pay royalties. An in-depth article that examines “la grande séduction Québec-Asie,” or Quebec’s attempts to attract Chinese and Indian investment, is a great read from Cyberpresse (in French).

China needs resources, and it will get them from the Arctic. But it might not receive a helping hand from Norway anytime soon unless it changes tack.

Earlier this month, Denmark appointed Klavs A. Holm as the new Arctic Ambassador, an office which will become permanent. At the same time, Danish Foreign Minister Villy Søvndal announced the closure of the embassies in Iraq, Benin, and Zambia. This move gives a strong signal that Denmark is putting forth a more visible diplomatic presence in the circumpolar north while refocusing its priorities in the Global South, where it will open embassies in Myanmar and Libya. Ambassador Holm will represent all three parts of the Danish Commonwealth: Denmark, Greenland, and the Faroe Islands. He will also coordinate the implementation of the government’s Arctic strategy, released last August.

Holm previously served as the Danish Ambassador in London, Paris, and Singapore. He also represented Denmark to the EU, in Brussels, where he worked on Arctic issues. The current ambassador for Public Diplomacy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will have his work cut out for him, as Foreign Minister Søvndal made clear when he visited Thule Air Force Base last December. When asked what assignments the new Arctic Ambassador would have, he responded, “If you ask for specific tasks, we can name climate change, which means that shipping in the Arctic is increasing in scope. There are very specific tasks to perform in relation to search and rescue in these remote areas. The area is large, and first and foremost, we must prepare the new agreements.” Specifically, he added, “It is clear that we need the Americans to not block civilian usage of Thule. Now, there will be a negotiation process to clarify how far we can go” (translated from the Danish). Search and rescue will thus be an important topic for Holm, as will mining and indigenous peoples – two issues which overlap heavily in Greenland. China has lately expressed strong interest in investing in Greenland’s mineral deposits, the Wall Street Journal reports, which might be cause for Holm to visit Beijing.

Denmark can now be added to the short list of countries which have Arctic ambassadors, which includes Sweden, Finland, and Russia. The United States and Canada are noticeably absent from this list, though there have been calls in the latter country to bring back the position (see here and here). Canada had an Arctic Ambassador from 1994 to 2006, but the role was abolished, as former Foreign Minister Peter McKay then stated, “We didn’t feel we were getting good value for money from that position.”

News Links

“New Danish Arctic Ambassador,” IPS

“Søvndal udnævner ambassadør for det aller nordligste,” Politiken (in Danish)

In its latest effort to highlight the danger of loose nukes – in this case, weapons-usable nuclear material – the Nuclear Threat Initiative has launched its Nuclear Materials Security Index. The intent, according to NTI co-Chairman, Chief Executive Office and public face of NTI former Senator Sam Nunn, is to provide a “country-by-country assessment of the status of nuclear materials security conditions around the world.” The Index, which identifies North Korea and Pakistan as having the world’s worst overall atomic material security conditions among the universe of 32 nations holding a threshold level of nuclear material, is intended to help pinpoint where the trouble spots are. The threat of nuclear terrorism still exists and the index points out these all countries possessing such materials have work to do, some more than others.

At the top of the heap, the Index ranked Australia the highest of the 32 nations. Hungary and the Czech Republic came in second and third place.  The United States was given a ranking of 13, while the United Kingdom was ranked 10th.  The other remaining acknowledged nuclear powers, France, Russia and China, were respectively ranked 19th, 24th and 27th.

Developed by the Economist Intelligence Unit, the NTI index assesses the 32 states that possess a minimum of 1 kilogram of weapon-usable nuclear material on their overall nuclear protective conditions by looking at five broad factors: quantities and sites; security and control measures; global norms; domestic commitments and capacity; and societal factors. The index also analyzed the nuclear security conditions in 144 other nations that have less than 1 kilogram of weapon-usable material using a subset of conditions such as domestic legislation criminalizing atomic materials smuggling and participation in international nonproliferation agreements. Denmark was in the top spot on that list. Throughout the process, the EIU and NTI were advised by an international panel of experts who included former IAEA Nuclear Security head Anita Nilsson, Carlos Augusto Feu Alvim da Silva, the former head of the Brazilian-Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials (ABACC), and Harvard Belfer Center nuke expert Matthew Bunn.

Speaking at the Index release on January 10th, Nunn said that they found that, while governments were becoming more engaged on nuclear material security, there was not a consensus about what security measures mattered most. He also stated that the Index was not meant to punish the low scorers while praising the high ones. “I want to be clear that the Index is not about congratulating some and chastising others. Instead, it should be used as a tool for initiating discussion, analysis and debate, as well as beginning to help build a consensus. My bottom line: If the world is to succeed in preventing catastrophic nuclear terrorism, all countries can and must do more to strengthen security around the world’s most dangerous materials. The NTI Index challenges governments worldwide to respond to the threat by taking appropriate steps to strengthen security conditions.”

Nunn hopes that the Index will help inform the Nuclear Security Summit process, including the upcoming March meeting in South Korea.

Anwar Masood is one of the most famous poets of Pakistan that belongs to the most difficult genre of the poetry that is Comic Poetry. This past October he visited Copenhagen where he shared some of his poetic lines that made people laugh like anything. i got these videos from my Friend Hassan Mubarik. Sharing some of the master pieces of that sitting find them below:

 

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Summary of the Past Year

This year, the Arctic has witnessed a lot more cooperation and a lot less conflict. Whereas past years were marked by sovereignty squabbles, boundary disputes, and accusations of airspace intrusions, this year, events took a more peaceful turn. First of all, members of the Arctic council signed the Agreement on Cooperation on Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue in the Arctic in May. Five months later, the first SAR exercise took place in Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada, with over 80 delegates and attendees. The agreement is actually beginning to be implemented, making it a true success story for the Council.

Executives from South Korea and policymakers from the Northwest Territories discussed the possibility of working together so that the former could purchase gas from the latter. The Norwegian and Russian legislatures ratified the agreement made last year delineating the maritime boundary between the two countries in the Barents Sea. This, in turn, opens up the waters to joint oil and gas exploration, which could see technology transfer from Norway to Russia, spurring the development of their offshore resources.

Russia, Canada, and the U.S. also carried out the second ever Vigilant Eagle exercise, a joint affair between the three countries testing their abilities to respond to a terrorist hijacking over the Bering Sea. In 2010, when the exercise was first performed, it was the first live-fly exercise between Russia and the U.S. since World War II, and the first ever between NORAD and Russia. Pushing the “reset” button in Russian-American relations may not yet have been fully successful, but it has worked to some degree in the Arctic. Encouragingly, Canadian and Russian tensions dissolved this year. Relations reached a high point when Canada’s Chief of Defence met with his counterpart in Moscow. More high-level visits also took place, with Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg paying a visit to President Barack Obama in Washington D.C. Though their conversation mostly concerned non-Arctic affairs, they did touch briefly upon the circumpolar north.

Most Unexpected Event

While it was not surprising that more parties than ever were interested in the Arctic, it was surprising where the interest originated. Billionaire Chinese investor Huang Nubo attempted to purchase a large tract of land in northeastern Iceland to develop an ecoutourism resort, but was rebuffed. Facebook and other technology companies like Google set up server farms in the cold northern regions of the Nordic countries. And most recently, UK Member of Parliament Angus Robertson of the Scottish National Party wrote an editorial in the Scotsman calling on Scotland to make a stand in the Arctic and rekindle ties with its northern neighbors like Norway. Robertson represents Moray, a council area on the southern coast of the Moray Firth, an inlet of the North Sea. Moray is actually not that much farther south than southernmost Norway, so perhaps Robertson has a point that the UK, or Scotland at the very least, could be more involved in the Arctic. Finally, the top brass of South Korea’s Korean Gas Company made a trip to Inuvik and Tuktoyaktuk in the Northwest Territories to investigate the possibility of building an LNG terminal. As a country with a large population that is short on natural gas, South Korea dearly needs new suppliers. Likewise, the Northwest Territories can always use more investments in their wealth of natural resources, so the partnership could be a natural one despite the vast distance of the Pacific Ocean separating the two places. While Iceland rejected a Chinese businessman’s attempts to buy property in their country, the issue of investing in natural resources is generally less controversial. Land and territory are sensitive subjects, particularly in the Arctic, where Canada and Denmark are still haggling over Hans Island. Yet Kogas purchased a 20 percent share in a Mackenzie Delta gas field, which Canada permitted. Yet had the company attempted to buy a large amount of land, that might not have been permitted.

Person or Group of People of the Year

The Arctic Council is this year’s group of people for its members’ accomplishment in signing the first-ever agreement under the council’s auspices. The Search and Rescue Agreement, signed by all eight member states of the Arctic Council in Nuuk, Greenland this past May, will coordinate countries’ efforts to aid ships, planes, and other vessels in distress. More work still needs to be done in harmonizing cooperation between all of the countries, but the agreement is a major milestone in the 15 year history of the Arctic Council. As I mentioned before, the first ever SAR exercises took place in October, demonstrating that the eight countries are serious about SAR.

The Arctic Council also grew in the eyes of foreign ministers in all of the Arctic countries this year, especially in the United States. For the first time ever, an American Secretary of State attended the ministerial meeting. Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar also attended, highlighting the importance of the meeting and esteem of the council in Washington’s eyes.

Forecast for 2012

Next year, even more of the Arctic sea ice will likely be gone in the summer of 2012. This does not bode well for the future of polar bears, subsistence lifestyles, and the environment in general in the Arctic. However, for the shipping industry, it’s good news. In 2012, we can expect more shipping activity in the Arctic, especially along the Northern Sea Route, which Russia is working hard to develop.

The Nordic countries will focus more on social development in the Arctic, using a “People first” approach. The Nordic Council of Ministers’ Arctic Co-operation Programme for 2012-2014 will begin next year, with a yearly budget of six to eight million DKK (approximately $1.08 – $1.45 million). The program’s aim is to promote sustainable development in northern communities in the face of climate change and globalization.

In Canada, work on the High Arctic Research Station will move forward. The facility is scheduled to open in 2014. We can expect its Northern Strategy in the Arctic to remain constant, especially since Prime Minister Stephen Harper will be settling into his sixth year in office. More investment could pour into the country from other Arctic nations, too. For instance, the Danish Ambassador to Canada, Erik Vilstrup Lorenzen, will give a presentation in Aalborg, Denmark in January 2012 about opportunities for Danish companies in Canada’s Arctic.

Russia will also likely have a stable policy in the Arctic, though with Vladimir Putin inevitably returning to office, it is possible that they Kremlin could take a harder line. However, Putin has mentioned his desire to clean up Russia’s Arctic several times this past year, so perhaps the environment could become slightly healthier next year. Russia is also continuing to build ties with other countries in the Arctic. Just yesterday, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Icelandic counterpart, Ossur Skarphedinsson, to discuss the region.

In the United States, one thing we can be sure of is that the country will not be ratifying UNCLOS anytime soon. Other than that, we can expect more of the same: a low-key policy in the Arctic with representatives from Alaska continuing to harp on the federal government to become more involved up north, and to drill. A decision might be made on whether to open ANWR to drilling, too.

The outlying countries and organizations, like China, South Korea, Japan, and the E.U., will press on with their interests in the Arctic. The next Arctic Council Ministerial Meeting will not take place until 2013, so they will not have a chance to re-apply for admission as a permanent observer. However, they will be able to continue engaging in the Arctic, generally through commercial and scientific enterprises.

Finally, the International Polar Year Conference, “From Knowledge to Action,” will take place in Montreal in April 2012. It will conclude the International Polar Year, which actually took place over two years from March 2007 – March 2009. It will be one of the largest polar conferences in history, with 3,000 scientists, researchers, and policymakers expected to attend. The public is allowed to register as well. Hopefully, I’ll be able to report from the conference!