Well, it’s here again. For the seventh time in 2011, Barcelona will play Real Madrid.
It's on like donkey kong.
Here are some thoughts:
1. Mourinho being quiet is scary
I prefer a world in which Mourinho is whining and complaining about UEFA, Unicef, referees, schedule makers, and the flying spaghetti monster. It means he knows that he needs a leg up, that he needs to influence the refs and media, that he needs to get into the opposition’s heads. And the fact that he needs to do all that means that he knows, deep down, that his team is not good enough.
This time is different. I haven’t heard a peep from this guy. Neither has anyone else. In the pre-match press conference, he sent out his loyal assistant Karanka to do the talking.
This worries me. It tells me that he has the whole “quiet confidence” thing going. And frankly, it’s a fair state of mind. Madrid are, as we speak, playing better football than Barcelona. That’s just a fact. They are sharper, more energetic, and are playing with a frightening pace. It will be no surprise to see them win, especially at home — even though they only need a draw.
But then again, that’s what we said before the Super Cup, and look what happened there.
2. Selection issues
I’m pretty sure I know what team Madrid will put out (with a small question at right back): Pepe and Ramos as CBs; Marcelo at LB; Lass, Alonso and Khedia as center mids; Dive Maria, Ronaldo on the wings; and Hunting Cat Benzema up front.
With Barca, it’s a bit dicier. There are essentially three big issues. First, will Pep play a 3-4-3 or a 4-3-3? Second, assuming it’s a 4-3-3 (and I think it will be), who will partner Mascherano at CB: Pique or Puyol? My guess is Pique though I can see why certain diehards are very keen to see Puyol. Third, who will play up front? Leo and Alexis are guaranteed starters. But for the third spot, does Pep go with proven goalscorer and big-game player, David Villa, or the in-form guy who’s not really a forward but is scoring like one this year, Cesc Fabregas?
I’d go with Villa, for a couple reasons. One, with two weeks’ rest, he’d be itching to go. He will be very sharp. I can feel it. Two, it’s sometimes easier to answer a question if you turn it around. Rather than ask who we’d like to see start, why not ask who we’d like to see come on as a sub? For that question, the answer is clear: it has to be Cesc. Cesc can really change games when he comes on, and has done numerous times already this season. With Villa, I’m less certain that a 65th minute entry will do much. He needs to work himself into the game, at his age, and I’d rather start with him and bring Cesc on later, all else being equal.
3. Records
Pep has never lost at the Bernabeu as manager. In fact, his overall record against one of the strongest Madrid teams in history is scarcely believable: 11 games, 7 wins, 3 draws, and only one loss. Goal difference? 25 for, 8 against.
I point this out because inevitably, this glorious run will end some time. Maybe it ends tomorrow; if Barca lose, them winning the league is essentially impossible. But let no one forget what Pep and this team have already done, against a team that would kill and has killed every other team on the planet. Madrid is easily the priciest team in the world led by the most in-demand manager in the world, and up to this point, they haven’t been able to crack the code.
Here’s a record that might worry Madrid fans though: in 15 games against Madrid, Leo has scored 13 goals. In 13 games against Barcelona, Ronaldo has scored two goals, one of them a penalty. For whatever reason — I think it’s his predictability and one-dimensional-ness — Barca defenders always have the measure of him. I’m much more worried about Di Maria than Ronaldo, let’s put it that way.
4. Madrid’s defense can be taken advantage of
Marcelo is in great form going forward, but if he’s my LB, I’m always worried. Ditto for Ramos as CB. And Pepe is always liable to do something stupid.
Madrid have been leaking goals this year, while racking up lots and lots of goals at the other end. So it hasn’t really affected their position in the table. But they will concede, I’m almost certain of that.
5. Madrid will come out really, really fired up
The Supercup games in August were really interesting. It was the first time Madrid really attacked Barca in the Mourinho era. They came out really, really aggressive, and not just in a thuggish we-will-kick-anything-that-moves kind of way, but in a we’re-going-to-score-any-second-now-buddy kind of way. They will throw men forward, they will press Barca high up the pitch, they won’t allow Busi or Xavi any time on the ball, and they will seek to crowd out Messi and Iniesta. And they’ll have a raucous crowd behind them, a crowd that hasn’t seen Madrid beat Barca since the spring of 2008.
Tell you what though: if Barca can weather the early storm — say, the first 20 minutes — and still be level, that’ll be really good news. Madrid will, at some point, run out of steam, and some spaces will open up, particularly for Alexis (I imagine Madrid will defend quite narrowly) and Iniesta (who will operate in almost the same zone as Messi). That’s when Barca can strike. But you don’t want to be one or two goals down early, because then they’re going to just keep on running and keep coming at you.
My hope tomorrow is that Barca just take the heat out of the game, almost goad Madrid into wasting too much energy early. But my fear is that Madrid will be too hungry and too good.
Honestly though, I don’t feel the same sense of fear or trepidation as last year, particularly before the 4 clasicos in 17 days. At the time, I felt like Barca’s place in history was in question. It no longer is. If Madrid win tomorrow, I’ll be upset and devastated to be sure, but it really won’t be the end of the world. This team has given me enough happiness and joy to last me several lifetimes.

